Table 2.

Epidemics simulated when the hypothesis of mass action is violated (ϵ≠0). (Simulation values, posterior mean and 95% credible interval of the power ϵ, the mean infectious period 1/γ, the initial number of susceptibles S₀ and the reporting rate ρ. The mean (s.d.) of the relative error of β/γ is also given. The force of infection is $\beta S_t{{\displaystyle I_t^{\prime }}}^{1-ϵ}$. The duration of observation periods is 14 days.)

ϵ (%)		1/γ (days)		S0 (×103)		ρ (%)		error β/γ (%)
simul	estimate	simul	estimate	simul	estimate	simul	estimate	mean (s.d.)
0.00	0.28	14.00	13.50	160	163	47.00	46.96	0.37 (1.35)
	[−0.10,0.68]		[12.38,14.72]		[150,179]		[46.84,47.08]
3.00	3.27	14.00	13.79	180	182	47.00	46.92	1.82 (1.06)
	[2.83,3.72]		[12.48,15.15]		[169,197]		[46.80,47.03]
5.00	6.70	14.00	14.89	180	197	47.00	46.94	3.57 (3.14)
	[5.00,8.42]		[13.21,16.84]		[170,233]		[46.82,47.06]
7.00	9.42	14.00	14.72	180	154	47.00	47.04	30.12 (1.98)
	[6.98,11.70]		[12.93,16.66]		[123,196]		[46.92,47.15]