Table 3.

Epidemics simulated from the SEIR model. (Simulation values, posterior mean and 95% credible interval of the mean infectious period 1/γ, the initial number of susceptibles $S_0$ and the reporting rate ρ. The mean (s.d.) of the relative error of β/γ is also given. In the simulations, the latent period L is constant or exponentially distributed; the infectious period is exponentially distributed with mean I=7 days. The duration of observation periods is 14 days.)

data		1/γ (days)	S0 (×103)		ρ (%)		error β/γ (%)
L	L+I	estimate	simul	estimate	simul	estimate	mean (s.d.)
cst
2	9	9.23 [8.38,10.10]	415	416 [377,460]	47.00	46.89 [46.70,47.07]	1.00 (3.01)
3.5	10.5	10.80 [9.82,11.87]	415	402 [364,442]	47.00	47.01 [46.85,47.18]	3.69 (4.92)
7	14	13.82 [12.52,15.11]	415	414 [375,460]	47.00	46.90 [46.72,47.08]	0.02 (8.12)
10	17	17.11 [15.10,19.14]	415	415 [370,467]	47.00	47.09 [46.92,47,27]	−0.14 (9.33)
exp
2	9	8.83 [8.01,9.74]	415	403 [361,446]	47.00	47.09 [46.90,47.27]	3.34 (3.01)
3.5	10.5	10.80 [9.72,11.97]	415	396 [351,448]	47.00	47.03 [46.83,47.21]	5.22 (4.32)
7	14	13.49 [12.15,14.84]	415	420 [377,470]	47.00	47.08 [46.88,47.27]	−1.23 (6.57)
10	17	15.30 [13.78,16.67]	415	436 [397,485]	47.00	46.98 [46.79,47.18]	−4.54 (7.57)