Table 5.

Transmission parameters for measles epidemics in London in the pre-vaccination era (1948–1964). (Posterior mean and 95% credible interval of the mean infectious period 1/γ, the initial number of susceptibles S₀, the reporting rate ρ and the power ϵ. Estimates obtained with the TSIR approach are also given (parameter q=26.17 [22.19,30.51]). The duration of observation periods is 14 days.)

	1/γ (days)	S0 (×103)	ρ (%)	ϵ (%)
1/γ estimated	3.34 [3.12,3.56]	428 [410,448]	47.50 [47.25,47.75]	0.95 [0.54,1.38]
1/γ fixed	14 —	220 [215,225]	48.25 [48.10,48.41]	2.25 [1.84,2.66]
TSIR	—	246 [219,277]	48.04 [47.22,48.86]	4.63 [3.07,6.22]