Table 3.

Predictors of developmental trajectories^a of DSM-IV criteria of nicotine dependence in the 4-class conditional GMM model (new cigarette smokers by Wave 3, N=311^b)

Covariates c	Class 2 (Chronic) AOR	vs.	Class 1 (None) 95%CI	Class 3 (Remit) AOR	vs.	Class 1 (None) 95%CI	Class 4 (Late) AOR	vs.	Class 1 (None) 95%CI	Class 2 (Chronic) AOR	vs.	Class 3 (Remit) 95%	Class 2 (Chronic) AOR	vs.	Class 4 (Late) 95%
Race/ethnicity (vs. white)
African American	1.18	0.43– 3.26		1.83	0.68– 4.92		0.89	0.32– 2.47		0.64	0.20– 2.09		1.34	0.39– 4.62
Hispanic	0.50	0.19– 1.32		0.30*	0.11– 0.87		0.34*	0.15– 0.79		1.66	0.50– 5.44		1.48	0.51– 4.30
Male(vs. female)	0.70	0.32– 1.52		0.40*	0.17– 0.97		0.63	0.28– 1.45		1.73	0.65– 4.59		1.10	0.44– 2.78
Onset age of smoking cigarettesd	1.04	0.69– 1.56		1.23	0.86– 1.74		0.77†	0.59– 1.02		0.85	0.54– 1.32		1.34	0.85– 2.14
Pack or more of cigarettes in the month before 1st DSMe	4.21*	0.99–17.86		4.26†	0.96–18.96		3.92†	0.77–19.80		0.99	0.30– 3.28		1.08	0.32– 3.66
Alcohol before cigarette onsetd	2.16	0.78– 5.99		1.85	0.76– 4.54		1.69	0.79– 3.64		1.17	0.38– 3.63		1.28	0.42– 3.86
Marijuana before cigarette onsetd onset	0.42	0.14– 1.24		0.76	0.31– 1.88		0.71	0.21– 2.40		0.55	0.17– 1.80		0.59	0.16– 2.16
Blunt before cigarette onsetd	7.02**	2.01–24.52		5.87**	1.74–19.79		5.24*	1.17–23.37		1.20	0.39– 3.71		1.34	0.36– 4.94
Pleasant initial sensitivity to tobaccod	2.96*	1.22– 7.19		4.85***	2.03–11.55		1.20	0.45– 3.23		0.61	0.30– 1.25		2.46*	1.08– 5.64
Parent self-reported DSM (vs. never smoked)
Smoked, not dependent	1.70	0.60– 4.87		0.55	0.22– 1.37		0.55	0.22– 1.34		3.10†	0.91–10.51		3.10†	0.94–10.22
Ever dependent	3.13†	0.92–10.70		0.71	0.19– 2.63		2.25	0.77– 6.57		4.43*	1.00–19.64		1.39	0.39– 4.95
Perceived peer smoking	1.70	0.77– 3.74		1.03	0.44– 2.40		1.26	0.57– 2.80		1.65	0.61– 4.49		1.35	0.52– 3.48
Conduct disorder positive screen	8.22**	2.18–31.03		4.24†	0.80–22.49		2.21	0.48–10.17		1.94	0.50– 7.45		3.72*	1.08–12.79
Novelty seeking	1.23	0.74– 2.06		1.81*	1.03– 3.18		1.22	0.71– 2.09		0.68	0.36– 1.29		1.01	0.55– 1.84

^aClass1= no DSM (N=149), class 2= Early DSM/Chronic (N=61), class 3= Early DSM/Remission (N=54), class 4= Late DSM (N=47). BIC=8591.97 (Free Parameters=58) Log likelihood=–4129.53 (Replicated 5 times at starts=500,100)

^bExcludes 13 cases with missing data.

^cMeasured at W1, except as noted.

^dMeasured when first reported using tobacco or other drugs (W1–W3).

^eFrom smoking history chart.

^†p<0.10

^*p<0.05

^**p<0.01

^***p<0.001