Fig. 1.

A Statistical Simulation of the Effect of Number of Expert Judges on Accuracy of Capacity Determinations Given a Prior Probability of Competence

Note: The simulation uses a binomial distribution where the competency status is a dichotomous random variable, with each expert's judgment representing an independent trial. The x-axis is the probability of the number of “successes” for N number of trials, defined as majority or better agreement within the expert group of varying numbers of experts. The y-axis represents the probability that a subject is actually incompetent.