Fig. 4.

Potential demand and stockpiles for antiviral drugs for four European Union countries

Assumptions: stockpiles have been made public,^a attack rate of 25%, treatment needed for 50% infected. Estimates for pre-exposure prophylaxis requirements are for health care workers only, and do not include other groups mentioned in the plans.^b Norway has committed to procuring an additional 12 million doses of rimantadin/amantadin for prophyaxis alone; this is not included here.

^a Stockpile size sources: Bulgaria, BBC Monitoring International Reports, 12 January 2006; Cyprus, Cyprus Mail, 25 January 2006; Norway, Norway National Pandemic Preparedness Plan, 2006; United Kingdom, Reuters, March 2006.

^b Population data taken from Eurostat website (available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=Yearlies_new_population&root=Yearlies_new_population/C/C1/C11/caa10000). Health-care worker figures taken from WHO, World health statistics 2006 (Geneva: WHO; 2006).