Table 1.

Prevalence, incidence, mortality, progression to ESRD, effect of therapy, and test characteristics

Probabilities	Age (yr)	Base Case (%/yr)	Range	Source
Annual incidence of CKD	50-64	0.71		Estimated from Coresh (1)
	65+	2.29
Annual mortality in the United States	60	0.97		Arias (23)
	70	2.36
Annual mortality of patients with ESRD	62	14.9		USRDS ADR (24)
	67	18.9
	74.5	26.0
Prevalence of CKD at age 60		0.149	0.075 to 0.224	Coresh (1)
Annual mortality of patients with CKD		0.050	0.0076 to 0.17	Foley, Go, Gerstein, Jafar, Sarnak (3, 18, 19, 20, 21)
Annual probability of progressing from CKD to ESRD		0.076	0.023 to 0.160	Foley, Jafar, Sarnak (19–21)

Effect of therapy on mortality and progression
Effect of therapy on annual mortality of CKD patients (CKD mortality coefficient)	1	0.76 to 1.00	Gerstein, Sarnak, Jafar (18, 20, 21)
Effect of therapy on annual progression from CKD to ESRD (CKD progression coefficient)	0.728	0.637 to 0.819	Jafar, Sarnak (20, 21)

Test characteristics of eGFR and serum creatinine
sensitivity of eGFR in detecting CKD	0.924	0.919 to 0.928	Rigalleau, Froissart (25, 26)
specificity of eGFR in detecting CKD	0.835	0.784 to 0.885	Rigalleau, Froissart (25, 26)
sensitivity of serum creatinine in detecting CKD	0.559	0.385 to 0.90	Newman, Xia, Oddoze (27, 28, 29)
specificity of serum creatinine in detecting CKD	0.950	0.90 to 0.975	Newman, Xia, Oddoze (27, 28, 29)

eGFR was derived using the abbreviated MDRD equation. ESRD, end stage renal disease (glomerular filtration rate < 15 ml/min/1.73 m²); CKD, chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 4 (glomerular filtration rate 15 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m²); USRDS ADR, United States Renal Data Service, Annual Data Report.