Table 3.

Case 3: posterior inference results

	Value	Prior	Simulation	Experiment
δM	0.44	Γ(0.44,0.02)	0.56 (0.36–0.92)	0.45 (0.26–0.82)
δP	0.52	Γ(0.52,0.02)	0.59 (0.38–0.89)	0.71 (0.45–1.09)
α	20	Exp(100)	16.97 (6.54–78.98)	0.46 (0.14–1.51)
sP	0.2	Exp(1)	0.17 (0.09–0.3)	2.11 (1.24–3.56)

Priors, posterior medians and 95% credibility intervals inferred from both simulated and experimental data. Rates are per hour. Γ(μ, σ²) denotes Gamma distribution with mean μ and variance σ². Full list of all parameter estimates is provided in Supplementary Material.