Table 4.
Examples of 10- and 20-Year Absolute Risk Estimates for CRC for White Men of Different Ages and Risk Factor Profiles
| Patient Profile No. | Age (years) | Sigmoidoscopy and/or Colonoscopy in the Last 10 Years | Polyp in the Last 10 Years | No. of First-Degree Relatives With CRC | Current Leisure-Time Activity (h/wk) | Regular User of Aspirin/NSAIDs (at least 3 times/wk) | Smoking (usual No. of cigarettes/day) | Vegetable Intake (servings/d) | Body Mass Index (kg/m2) | 10-Year Absolute Risk |
20-Year Absolute Risk |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | ||||||||||
| 1 | 50 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0.16 | 0.11% to 0.22% | 0.53 | 0.38% to 0.73% |
| 2 | 50 | No | — | 0 | 1 | No | 8 | 3 | 27 | 1.06 | 0.90% to 1.25% | 3.48 | 2.92% to 4.13% |
| 3 | 50 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | > 20 | 4 | 31 | 2.71 | 1.49% to 4.87% | 9.14 | 5.02% to 16.05% |
| 4 | 55 | Yes | No | 0 | 6 | Yes | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0.26 | 0.19% to 0.36% | 0.70 | 0.53% to 1.04% |
| 5 | 55 | No | — | 1 | 3 | Yes | 0 | 3 | 33 | 2.02 | 1.45% to 2.81% | 5.57 | 3.97% to 7.76% |
| 6 | 55 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | > 20 | 4 | 32 | 4.59 | 2.51% to 8.25% | 12.98 | 7.11% to 22.50% |
| 7 | 60 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0.40 | 0.29% to 0.56% | 0.93 | 0.66% to 1.33% |
| 8 | 60 | No | — | 1 | 4 | Yes | 0 | 3 | 32 | 3.07 | 2.19% to 4.28% | 6.97 | 4.93% to 9.77% |
| 9 | 60 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | > 20 | 2 | 31 | 7.14 | 3.89% to 12.77% | 16.65 | 9.11% to 28.46% |
| 10 | 65 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0.54 | 0.38% to 0.77% | 1.07 | 0.74% to 1.55% |
| 11 | 65 | No | — | 0 | 1 | No | 10 | 2 | 26 | 3.51 | 2.89% to 4.26% | 6.78 | 5.50% to 8.32% |
| 12 | 65 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | > 20 | 4 | 31 | 9.95 | 5.37% to 17.8% | 19.4 | 10.6% to 32.7% |
NOTE. Categories for each variables used in the CRC absolute risk model: sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy and polyp history in the last 10 years—no, sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy; yes, sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy, no polyps; yes, sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy, yes polyps; unknown sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy and polyps. Number of relatives with CRC—0, no relatives; 1 relative; ≥ 2 relatives. Current leisure-time activity—0 h/wk; 0 to 2 h/wk; 2 to 4 h/wk; > 4 h/wk. Regular user of aspirin/NSAIDs—regular user, at least 3 times/wk; nonuser, less than 3 times/wk. Smoking—usual number of cigarettes/d when smoking: 0, never smoker; 1 to 10 cigarettes/d; 11 to 20 cigarettes/d, > 20 cigarettes/d. Vegetable intake—< 5 servings/d; 5+ servings/d. Body mass index—underweight and normal weight < 30 kg/m2; overweight ≥ 30 kg/m2.
Abbreviations: CRC, colorectal cancer; NSAID, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug.