Table 5.
Examples of 10- and 20-Year Absolute Risk Estimates for CRC for White Women of Different Ages and Risk Factor Profiles
| Patient Profile No. | Age (years) | Sigmoidoscopy and/or Colonoscopy in the Last 10 Years | Polyp in the Last 10 Years | No. of First-Degree Relatives With CRC | Current Leisure-Time Activity (h/wk) | Regular User of Aspirin/NSAIDs | Vegetable Intake (servings/d) | Body Mass Index (kg/m2) | Estrogen Status Within the Last 2 Years | 10-Year Absolute Risk |
20-Year Absolute Risk |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | 95% CI | % | 95% CI | ||||||||||
| 1 | 50 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 6 | 28 | Positive | 0.09 | 0.07% to 0.13% | 0.31 | 0.22% to 0.43% |
| 2 | 50 | No | — | 1 | 3 | Yes | 7 | 29 | Negative | 0.71 | 0.50% to 1.01% | 2.25 | 1.61% to 3.13% |
| 3 | 50 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | 3 | 32 | Negative | 2.51 | 1.50% to 4.19% | 8.11 | 4.89% to 13.17% |
| 4 | 55 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 6 | 28 | Positive | 0.15 | 0.11% to 0.21% | 0.43 | 0.31% to 0.62% |
| 5 | 55 | No | — | 1 | 1 | No | 2 | 31 | Positive | 1.85 | 1.30% to 2.64% | 4.99 | 3.55% to 6.98% |
| 6 | 55 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | 3 | 32 | Negative | 4.13 | 2.46% to 6.84% | 11.38 | 6.88% to 18.23% |
| 7 | 60 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 6 | 28 | Positive | 0.22 | 0.16% to 0.32% | 0.57 | 0.40% to 0.82% |
| 8 | 60 | No | — | 1 | 1 | No | 3 | 32 | Positive | 2.61 | 1.85% to 3.68% | 6.37 | 4.57% to 8.82% |
| 9 | 60 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | 3 | 32 | Negative | 6.01 | 3.60% to 9.87% | 14.72 | 8.94% to 23.29% |
| 10 | 65 | Yes | No | 0 | 5 | Yes | 6 | 28 | Positive | 0.30 | 0.21% to 0.44% | 0.69 | 0.48% to 1.00% |
| 11 | 65 | No | — | 1 | 4 | Yes | 6 | 28 | Negative | 2.13 | 1.54% to 2.94% | 4.64 | 3.38% to 6.35% |
| 12 | 65 | Yes | Yes | 2 | 0 | No | 3 | 32 | Negative | 8.16 | 4.89% to 13.31% | 17.49 | 10.66% to 27.37% |
NOTE. Categories for each variables used in the CRC absolute risk model: sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy and polyp history in the last 10 years—no, sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy; yes, sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy, no polyps; yes, sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy, yes polyps; unknown sigmoidoscopy and/or colonoscopy and polyps. Number of relatives with CRC—0, no relatives; 1 relative; ≥ 2 relatives. Current leisure-time activity—0 h/wk; 0 to 2 h/wk; 2 to 4 h/wk; > 4 h/wk. Regular user of aspirin/NSAIDs—regular user, at least 3 times/wk; nonuser, less than 3 times/wk. Vegetable intake—< 5 servings/d; 5+ servings/d. Body mass index—underweight and normal weight < 30 kg/m2; overweight ≥ 30 kg/m2. Estrogen status within the last 2 years—negative; positive.
Abbreviations: CRC, colorectal cancer; NSAID, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug.