Table 5.
Results of logistic regression with permutation resampling, using panels of from two to four markersa)
| Marker panel | ROC AUCsb) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Empiricalc) (95% CI) |
Binormald) (95% CI) |
|
| {IL-8 HGF} | 0.772 (0.599–0.876) | 0.764 (0.596–0.868) |
| {IL-8, HGF, MIG} | 0.757 (0.583–0.865) | 0.747 (0.577–0.855) |
| {IL-8, HGF, MIG, IL-12p40} | 0.803 (0.624–0.901) | 0.810 (0.651–0.901) |
| IL-5 (best univariate marker) | 0.679 (0.487–0.808) | 0.651 (0.472–0.779) |
Markers eligible for panel membership have the four highest r2s in Table 4. For comparison purposes, the best univariate marker (IL-5) was also subjected to logistic regression with permutation resampling.
ROC curves were constructed from each sample’s average of test-set prediction probabilities derived from the resampling.
AUCs of empirical ROC curves are determined from the actual prediction probabilities for each patient.
AUCs of binormal ROC curves (shown in Fig. 2) are calculated from fitting binormal-model continuous curves to the patient prediction probabilities.