Table 3.
Association between the metabolic syndrome (time-updated analyses), its components, and CVD from main and sensitivity analyses
| Factor* | Main analysis: training set (671 events, 110,652 person-years) | Main analysis: validation set (303 events, 48,741 person-years) | Metabolic syndrome components reversible (671 events, 110,652 person-years) | No missing data on metabolic syndrome components (377 events, 57,536 person-years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted | ||||
| MS | 2.40 (2.06–2.79); 0.0001 | 2.71 (2.16–3.40); 0.0001 | 3.02 (2.54–3.59); 0.0001 | 3.34 (2.36–4.74); 0.0001 |
| Adjusted† | ||||
| MS | 0.94 (0.69–1.27); 0.67 | 1.00 (0.64–1.57); 0.99 | 1.03 (0.77–1.39); 0.83 | 0.88 (0.52–1.49); 0.63 |
| High TRIG | 1.50 (1.18–1.91); 0.001 | 1.26 (0.88–1.79); 0.20 | 1.47 (1.23–1.76); 0.0001 | 1.39 (1.10–1.76); 0.006 |
| Low HDL | 1.41 (1.12–1.76); 0.003 | 1.61 (1.12–2.30); 0.009 | 1.25 (1.03–1.51); 0.02 | 1.44 (1.12–1.86); 0.005 |
| High BP | 1.26 (0.98–1.62); 0.07 | 1.40 (0.95–2.05); 0.09 | 1.14 (0.92–1.41); 0.23 | 1.23 (0.98–1.53); 0.07 |
| Diabetes | 2.31 (1.83–2.92); 0.0001 | 1.96 (1.39–2.77); 0.0001 | 2.27 (1.77–2.92); 0.0001 | 2.07 (1.43–2.99); 0.0001 |
| High BMI | 1.33 (1.01–1.74); 0.04 | 1.38 (0.94–2.03); 0.10 | 1.13 (0.79–1.60); 0.51 | 1.09 (0.67–1.79); 0.72 |
Data are ARRs (95% CI); P values.
*
High triglycerides (TRIG): ≥1.7 mmol/l; low HDL cholesterol: ≤1.0 mmol/l (men) or ≤1.3 mmol/l (women); high blood pressure (BP): systolic BP >130 mmHg or diastolic BP >85 mmHg; diabetes: an established diagnosis of diabetes; high BMI: >30 kg/m2.
†
Adjusted estimates obtained from a multivariable Poisson regression model that also includes adjustment for other potential confounders as sex, age, family history of CVD, smoking status, calendar year, cohort, HIV risk group, ethnic group, and exposure to the protease inhibitor, NRTI, and NNRTI classes of drugs.