Table 3.
Trends in the determinants of malaria incidence and transmission in Canada.
| Driving factors | Potential effect on determinants of malaria transmission | Impact on malaria risk in Canada | Impact on malaria transmission parameters (Figure 4) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate change | Improved mosquito habitat in Canada, increased vector populations | Increased probability of local transmission | ↑ ma |
| ↓ g (↑ e −gn) | |||
| Extension of the annual period available for parasite replication in mosquitoes in Canada | Increased probability of local transmission | ↑ ma | |
| ↓ g (↑ e −gn) | |||
| Changes in the distribution and/or incidence in countries outside of Canada to/from which Canadians travel | Impact on the number of imported cases | ↑ or ↓ b | |
| Probability of local transmission uncertain | ↑ or ↓ c | ||
|
| |||
| Increasing immigration | Increased introduction of infected individuals | Increased number of imported cases | ↑ b |
| Increased probability of local transmission | ↑ c | ||
|
| |||
| Increasing international travel | Increased introduction of infected individuals | Increased number of imported cases | ↑ b |
| Increased probability of local transmission | ↑ c | ||
|
| |||
| Drug resistance | Decreased efficacy of prophylaxis | Increased incidence and mortality | ↑ 1/r |
|
| |||
| Delayed diagnosis | Increased gametocyte incidence | Increased probability of local transmission | ↑ 1/r |