Table 3.

Drivers for short-term planning

Organisational systems

○ Politicians and public perceived as thinking in terms of short term electoral payback

○ Policies perceived to have limited shelf life

○ Commissioning framework is short term

○ Evidence-based policy making leads to a focus on short term interventions evaluated by randomised control trials (RCTs)

○ Disruption caused by reorganisations

○ System set up (the NHS and the government)

○ European legislation

Difficulty of long term forecasting

○ Service reorganisations

○ Perceived poor quality evidence for long-term intervention

○ Research not produced in a timely fashion to inform decisions

○ Focus on short term targets and deadlines

○ Accuracy of forecasting limited

○ Uncertainty of effects of major long term processes like climate change and global food shortages on public health

○ Public heath professionals perceived to have limited influence on long term planning process

○ Lack of long-term perspective think tank