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. 2007 Oct;61(10):915–920. doi: 10.1136/jech.2006.055426

Table 3 Age, sex, and marital status adjusted Cox proportional hazards models of incident all cause disability pension with two follow up periods by sick leave of more than seven days at baseline*.

Diagnosis for sick leave in 1985 Disability pension during 1986–1990 Disability pension during 1991–1996
No of participants (No of disability pension cases) Hazard ratio (95% CI) No of participants (No of disability pension cases) Hazard ratio (95% CI)
Participants with no new sick leave 145 173 (1 943) 1.00 142 570 (5 283) 1.00
Participants with sick leave from a specific diagnosis
V Mental disorders 2 518 (358) 8.68 (7.7 to 9.7) 2 107 (421) 4.99 (4.5 to 5.5)
XIII Diseases of musculoskeletal system and connective tissue 8 870 (971) 6.94 (6.4 to 7.5) 7 840 (1 250) 4.10 (3.9 to 4.4)
X Diseases of genitourinary system 516 (33) 4.25 (3.0 to 6.0) 476 (74) 4.16 (3.3 to 5.2)
IX Diseases of gastrointestinal system 2 275 (150) 4.57 (3.9 to 5.4) 2 093 (292) 3.87 (3.4 to 4.3)
XVI Symptoms, signs, and ill defined conditions 1 288 (95) 4.83 (3.9 to 5.9) 1 184 (158) 3.57 (3.0 to 4.2)
VI Diseases of nervous system and sense organs 1 194 (93) 4.71 (3.8 to 5.8) 1 091 (153) 3.42 (2.9 to 4.0)
All cause sick leave 31 456 (1 966) 4.18 (3.9 to 4.5) 29 224 (3 348) 3.00 (2.9 to 3.1)

*Findings present only for sick leave categories that predicted disability pension more strongly than all cause sick leave. Analyses for each diagnostic category include participants with sick leave from the specific diagnosis (exposure group) and those with no new sick leave (the reference), but exclude participants with sick leave from other diagnoses.

CI, confidence interval.