Table 2 Baseline cardiovascular risk factors associated with future fatal and non‐fatal any‐cause stroke (including transient ischaemic attack and haemorrhagic stroke) over a total period of 30 years of follow‐up and divided into three different follow‐up periods.
| Follow‐up period | 0–30 (age period 50–80 years) | 0–9.9 (age period 50–60 years) | 10–19.9 (age period 60–70 years) | 20–30 (age period 70–80 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of cases | 343 | 40 | 122 | 181 | ||||
| PYAR | 57 003 | 23 317 | 19 719 | 13 966 | ||||
| Characteristics | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI†) | P Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value |
| ECG items | ||||||||
| Q/QS on ECG | 2.71 (1.21 to 6.08) | 0.016 | 4.66 (1.12 to 19.3) | 0.03 | 3.07 (0.98 to 9.67) | 0.06 | 1.33 (0.19 to 9.50) | 0.8 |
| ECG‐LVH | 5.68 (3.11 to 10.4) | <0.001 | 16.0 (6.25 to 40.8) | <0.001 | 5.39 (1.99 to 14.6) | 0.001 | 2.27 (0.56 to 9.14) | 0.3 |
| ST depression | 4.60 (2.89 to 7.31) | <0.001 | 11.3 (4.92 to 25.2) | <0.001 | 5.10 (2.49 to 10.5) | <0.001 | 2.04 (0.8 to 5.51) | 0.2 |
| T wave abnormality | 2.58 (1.82 to 3.66) | <0.001 | 4.33 (2.00 to 9.40) | <0.001 | 3.56 (2.16 to 5.87) | <0.001 | 1.36 (0.70 to 2.66) | 0.4 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 1.68 (0.24 to 11.98) | 0.6 | ||||||
| Conventional cardiovascular risk factors | ||||||||
| BMI | 1.16 (1.05 to 1.30) | 0.004 | 1.23 (0.92 to 1.64) | 0.2 | 1.18 (0.99 to 1.41) | 0.06 | 1.14 (0.98 to 1.32) | 0.1 |
| SBP supine | 1.39 (1.27 to 1.52) | <0.001 | 1.67 (1.34 to 2.07) | <0.001 | 1.51 (1.31 to 1.73) | <0.001 | 1.21 (1.05 to 1.40) | 0.008 |
| DBP supine | 1.34 (1.21 to 1.48) | <0.001 | 1.53 (1.17 to 1.99 | 0.002 | 1.41 (1.20 to 1.65) | <0.001 | 1.24 (1.07 to 1.43) | 0.004 |
| Fasting glucose | 1.11 (1.01 to 1.22) | 0.04 | 1.21 (1.02 to 1.44) | 0.03 | 1.13 (0.99,1.30) | 0.07 | 1.02 (1.86 to 1.22) | 0.8 |
| Fasting insulin | 1.16 (1.04 to 1.29) | 0.007 | 1.31 (1.05 to 1.62) | 0.014 | 1.17 (0.98 to 1.38) | 0.08 | 1.10 (0.93 to 1.30) | 0.3 |
| Triglycerides | 1.06 (0.94 to 1.19) | 0.3 | 1.11 (0.93 to 1.33 | 0.2 | 1.00 (0.81 to 1.24) | 0.98 | 1.07 (0.88 to 1.29) | 0.5 |
| Cholesterol | 1.03 (0.93 to 1.15) | 0.5 | 0.91 (0.66 to 1.25) | 0.5 | 1.08 (0.90 to 1.28) | 0.4 | 1.04 (0.89 to 1.20) | 0.6 |
| HDL | 0.99 (0.88 to 1.13 | 0.96 | 0.88 (0.60 to 1.27) | 0.5 | 1.01 (0.82 to 1.23) | 0.95 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.21) | 0.9 |
| LDL | 1.03 (0.92 to 1.17) | 0.6 | 0.90 (0.63 to 1.28) | 0.6 | 1.09 (0.90 to 1.32) | 0.4 | 1.03 (0.87 to 1.22) | 0.7 |
| ApoA1 | 0.97 (0.86 to 1.10) | 0.8 | 0.79 (0.55 to 1.14) | 0.2 | 1.02 (0.83 to 1.24) | 0.9 | 0.79 (0.84 to 1.18) | 0.9 |
| ApoB | 1.03 (0.91 to 1.16) | 0.6 | 1.04 (0.74 to 1.45) | 0.8 | 1.00 (0.82 to 1.22) | 0.97 | 1.04 (0.88 to 1.23) | 0.6 |
| ApoB/ApoA1 | 1.05 (0.93 to 1.18) | 0.4 | 1.15 (0.84 to 1.59) | 0.4 | 1.05 (0.86,1.28) | 0.6 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.22) | 0.8 |
| Smoking | 1.35 (1.10 to 1.68) | 0.005 | 2.96 (1.46 to 6.06) | 0.003 | 1.45 (1.01 to 2.08) | 0.04 | 1.11 (0.83 to 1.49) | 0.5 |
| DM | 1.69 (1.13 to 2.51) | 0.01 | 2.57 (1.00 to 6.56) | 0.05 | 1.93 (1.04 to 3.58) | 0.04 | 1.29 (0.68 to 2.45) | 0.4 |
ApoA1, apolipoprotein A1; ApoB, apolipoprotein B; BMI, body mass index; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; DM, diabetes mellitus; ECG, electrocardiogram; HDL, high‐density lipoprotein; LDL, low‐density lipoprotein; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; PYAR, patient years at risk; SBP, systolic blood pressure.
HRs with 95% CI derived from univariate Cox's proportional hazards regression were applied to variables standardised to 1 SD. Due to the low number of ECGs with atrial fibrillation at age 50 (n = 7), it was only possible to determine HRs for atrial fibrillation for the total follow‐up period and for the first 10 years of follow‐up