Table 3 Baseline cardiovascular risk factors associated with future fatal and non‐fatal ischaemic stroke (excluding transient ischaemic attack and haemorrhagic stroke) over a total period of 30 years of follow‐up and divided into three different follow‐up periods.
| Follow‐up period | 0–30 (age period 50–80 years) | 0–9.9 (age period 50–60 years) | 10–19.9 (age period 60–70 years) | 20–30 (age period 70– 80 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of cases | 221 | 16 | 75 | 130 | ||||
| PYAR | 54 873 | 22 174 | 18 933 | 13 766 | ||||
| Characteristics | HR (95% CI) | P Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value |
| ECG items | ||||||||
| Q/QS on ECG | 3.67 (1.51 to 8.93) | 0.004 | 5.85 (0.77 to 44.3) | 0.09 | 4.83 (1.52 to 15. 4) | 0.008 | 1.92 (0.27 to 13.8) | 0.5 |
| ECG‐LVH | 7.64 (3.92 to 14.90) | <0.001 | 39.3 (12.7 to 122) | <0.001 | 6.74 (2.12 to 12.4) | 0.001 | 3.18 (0.79 to 12.9) | 0.1 |
| ST depression | 6.29 (3.78 to 10.47) | <0.001 | 32.5 (11.8 to 89.5) | <0.001 | 6.26 (2.72 to 14.4) | <0.001 | 2.82 (1.04 to 7.62) | 0.04 |
| T wave abnormality | 3.02 (1.99 to 4.58) | <0.001 | 10.7 (3.89 to 29.5) | <0.001 | 4.38 (2.41 to 7.97) | <0.001 | 1.28 (0.57 to 2.91) | 0.6 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 2.71 (0.38 to 19.31) | 0.3 | 25.7 (3.39 to 194) | 0.002 | ||||
| Conventional cardiovascular risk factors | ||||||||
| BMI | 1.26 (1.11 to 1.43) | <0.001 | 1.28 (0.81 to 2.00) | 0.3 | 1.33 (1.08 to 1.64) | 0.008 | 1.21 (1.02 to 1.44) | 0.03 |
| SBP supine | 1.47 (1.31 to 1.64) | <0.001 | 2.04 (1.52 to 2.74) | <0.001 | 1.62 (1.36 to 1.91) | <0.001 | 1.26 (1.07 to 1.48) | 0.005 |
| DBP supine | 1.43 (1.27 to 1.62) | <0.001 | 2.06 (1.41 to 2.74) | <0.001 | 1.51 (1.23 to 1.84) | <0.001 | 1.29 (1.09 to 1.53) | 0.003 |
| Fasting glucose | 1.18 (1.07 to 1.32) | 0.002 | 1.39 (1.16 to 1.66) | <0.001 | 1.14(0.95 to 1.36) | 0.2 | 1.15 (0.97 to 1.36) | 0.1 |
| Fasting insulin | 1.22 (1.09 to 1.37) | 0.001 | 1.46 (1.16 to 1.83) | 0.001 | 1.20 (0.99 to 1.45) | 0.06 | 1.17 (0.98 to 1.40) | 0.08 |
| Triglycerides | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.24) | 0.2 | 1.12 (0.86 to 1.46) | 0.4 | 1.05 (0.83 to 1.33) | 0.7 | 1.10 (0.89 to 1.37) | 0.4 |
| Cholesterol | 1.01 (0.89 to 1.16) | 0.9 | 0.69 (0.40 to 1.18) | 0.2 | 1.08 (0.86 to 1.35) | 0.5 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.22) | 0.8 |
| HDL | 0.95 (0.81 to 1.11) | 0.5 | 0.80 (0.45 to 1.44) | 0.5 | 0.92 (0.69 to 1.22) | 0.6 | 0.99 (0.80 to 1.21) | 0.9 |
| LDL | 0.99 (0.85 to 1.15) | 0.9 | 0.66 (0.37 to 1.16) | 0.2 | 1.11 (0.86 to 1.42) | 0.4 | 0.98 (0.81 to 1.20) | 0.9 |
| ApoA1 | 0.97 (0.83 to 1.13) | 0.7 | 0.71 (0.39 to 1.31) | 0.3 | 0.97 (0.74 to 1.26) | 0.8 | 0.99 (0.81 to 1.22) | 0.96 |
| ApoB | 1.01 (0.87 to 1.18) | 0.9 | 0.88 (0.50 to 1.54) | 0.7 | 0.99 (0.77 to 1.29) | 0.96 | 1.03 (0.85 to 1.26) | 0.7 |
| ApoB/ApoA1 | 1.04 (0.89 to 1.21) | 0.6 | 1.13 (0.67 to 1.90) | 0.6 | 1.07 (0.83 to 1.38) | 0.6 | 1.01 (0.83 to 1.24) | 0.9 |
| Smoking | 1.24 (0.95 to 1.61) | 0.1 | 4.37 (1.25 to 15.3) | 0.02 | 1.17 (0.75 to 1.84) | 0.5 | 1.12 (0.79 to 1.58) | 0.5 |
| DM | 2.39 (1.55 to 3.69) | <0.001 | 5.85 (1.89 to 18.1) | 0.002 | 2.56 (1.28 to 5.14) | 0.008 | 1.86 (0.97 to 3.55) | 0.06 |
ApoA1, apolipoprotein A1; ApoB, apolipoprotein B; BMI, body mass index; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; DM, diabetes mellitus; ECG, electrocardiogram; HDL, high density lipoprotein; LDL, low‐density lipoprotein; LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy; PYAR, patient years at risk; SBP, systolic blood pressure.
HRs with 95% CI derived from univariate Cox's proportional hazards regression were applied to variables standardised to 1 SD. Owing to the low number of ECGs with atrial fibrillation at age 50 years (n = 7), it was only possible to determine HRs for atrial fibrillation for the total follow‐up period and for the first 10 years of follow‐up.