Table 3.

Model Calibration by Decile of Predicted Mortality

		Died		Survived
Mortality Risk	Total Patients	Observed	Expected	Observed	Expected	Deviation	L.H. χ2
CCS
0–8%	4,381	178	278	4,203	4,103	39	166
8–12%	4,381	323	440	4,058	3,941	34
12–15%	4,381	534	580	3,847	3,801	4
15–19%	4,381	707	737	3,674	3,644	1
19–22%	4,381	988	899	3,393	3,482	11
22–27%	4,382	1,201	1,090	3,181	3,292	15
27–33%	4,381	1,481	1,331	2,900	3,050	24
33–42%	4,381	1,705	1,631	2,676	2,750	5
42–55%	4,381	2,136	2,101	2,245	2,280	1
55–100%	4,381	2,895	3,062	1,486	1,319	30
Iezzoni
6–11%	4,303	226	394	4,077	3,909	79	224
11–13%	4,597	403	541	4,194	4,056	40
13–18%	3,492	538	545	2,954	2,947	0
18–20%	5,135	978	933	4,157	4,202	3
20–23%	4,232	989	895	3,243	3,337	13
23–30%	4,372	1,299	1,153	3,073	3,219	25
30–32%	4,537	1,539	1,401	2,998	3,136	20
32–39%	4,381	1,618	1,573	2,763	2,808	2
39–51%	4,372	2,034	1,984	2,338	2,388	2
51–96%	4,390	2,524	2,729	1,866	1,661	41
Charlson
7–11%	4,285	230	413	4,055	3,872	90	209
11–14%	4,498	436	555	4,062	3,943	29
14–19%	4,360	778	706	3,582	3,654	9
19–20%	5,611	1,152	1,115	4,459	4,496	2
20–23%	3,154	765	687	2,389	2,467	11
23–28%	4,331	1,146	1,097	3,185	3,234	3
28–33%	4,421	1,526	1,397	2,895	3,024	17
33–39%	4,396	1,669	1,560	2,727	2,836	12
39–50%	4,398	1,969	1,946	2,429	2,452	0
50–97%	4,357	2,477	2,671	1,880	1,686	36

Legend:

Each risk-adjustment instrument applied to MedPar (index + pre-period) + Part B (pre-period).

Deviation = difference between observed and expected probabilities of death among deaths and survivors.

Calculated using: (Odeaths − Edeaths)² / (total no. pt. in group)*(Edeaths/total pts in group)*(1 − (Edeaths/total patients in group))

L.H. = Lemeshow-Hosmer χ2 > 15.5, df = 8, p < 0.001 for each risk-adjustment strategy