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| Path name | Path probability | Number of people |
|---|---|---|
| Inoculate and live | 0.979 | 281 |
| Inoculate and die | 0.021 | 6 |
| No inoculation, infected and live | (x)(0.854) | 4917 |
| No inoculation, infected and die | (x)(0.146) | 842 |
| No inoculation, not infected and live | (1–x) | 4654 |
| Total population | 10 700 |
