Table 5 Smallpox, Boston 1752. Decision: inoculate or not.
| Path name | Path probabilities | Outcomes | Number of people |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inoculate and live | (0.986) | 1 | 2094 |
| Inoculate and die | (0.014) | 0 | 30 |
| Do nothing infected and live | (0.97)(0.903) | 1 | 5006 |
| Do nothing infected and die | (0.97)(0.097) | 0 | 539 |
| Do nothing NOT infected and live | (0.03) | 1 | 174 |
| Left town infected and live | (y)(0.903) | 1 | 1762 |
| Left town infected and die | (y)(0.097) | 0 | 26 |
| Left town not infected and live | (1−y) | 1 | 55 |
| Not at risk of infection, immune | 5998 | ||
| Total population | 15 684 |