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| Expected value of leaving town = (probability of living) | Expected value of inoculation (probability of living) | |
|---|---|---|
| (y)(0.903)(1) + (y)(0.097)(0) + (1−y)(1) | = | 0.986 |
| (y)(0.903) + 1 − (y) | = | 0.986 |
| y | = | 0.144 |
