Table 10.

Cost parameters included in the sensitivity analysis

Parameter	% Variation relative to base-case		Remark
	Minimum	Maximum
Fixed capital investment	0.7	1.3	A range of +/- 30% was considered sufficient to cover uncertainties in capital cost.
Cost of biomass	0.6	1.7	A range of -40% to +70% approximates to the 15th and 85th percentiles obtained in the survey of EU cost estimates for softwood and straw.
Enzymes	0.5	1.5	A range of +/- 50% was considered reasonable given the uncertainties in the costs of enzyme production.
Cost of ethanol	0.3	1.85	The minimum -70% reflects the price of ethanol valued on an energy basis with an oil price of US$40 barrel-1. The maximum +85% reflects ethanol valued on a volume basis plus subsidy, assuming an oil price of US$150 barrel-1.
Solid fuel revenue	0.7	1.3	A range of +/- 30% was considered sufficient to cover uncertainties in the retail price of solid fuel.
Distribution cost	0.7	1.3	A range of +/- 30% was considered sufficient to cover uncertainties in distribution cost.
Effective discount rate	1	2	A discount rate range of 7–30% was considered sufficient to cover uncertainties in how a plant may be financed.