Table 1.
Probabilities used in the model
| Probabilities | Mean value | Distribution | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maternal mortality after caesarean section | 0.18 × 10−3 | Beta (36, 197 745) | Hall and Bewley15 |
| Maternal mortality after spontaneous and instrumental vaginal delivery | 0.21 × 10−4 | Beta (38, 1 845 919) | Hall and Bewley15 |
| Pulmonary embolism after caesarean section | 0.51 × 10−3 | Beta (67, 132 342) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Deep vein thrombosis after caesarean section | 0.11 × 10−2 | Beta (141, 132 268) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Cerebral thrombosis after caesarean section | 0.24 × 10−3 | Beta (32, 132 377) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Pulmonary embolism after spontaneous and instrumental vaginal delivery | 0.11 × 10−3 | Beta (131, 1 148 627) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Deep vein thrombosis after spontaneous and instrumental vaginal delivery | 0.28 × 10−3 | Beta (326, 1 148 432) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Cerebral thrombosis after spontaneous and instrumental vaginal delivery | 0.91 × 10−4 | Beta (104, 1 148 654) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Blood transfusions after caesarean section | 0.46 × 10−2 | Beta (687, 149 621) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Blood transfusions after instrumental vaginal delivery | 0.40 × 10−2 | Beta (335, 83 578) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Blood transfusions after spontaneous vaginal delivery | 0.13 × 10−2 | Beta (1415, 1 107 807) | The National Board of Health and Welfare17 |
| Sepsis after caesarean section | 0.15 × 10−2 | Beta (15, 9883) | Kankuri et al.18 |
| Sepsis after spontaneous and instrumental vaginal delivery | 0.48 × 10−3 | Beta (16, 33 559) | Kankuri et al.18 |
| Metabolic acidosis after CTG | 0.12 × 10−1 | Beta (49, 3967) | Neilson5 |
| RR metabolic acidosis after ST analysis | 0.64 | Gamma (7.92, 0.08) | Neilson5 |
| Caesarean section after CTG | 0.86 × 10−1 | Dirichlet (378, 619, 3404) | Neilson5 |
| Instrumental vaginal delivery after CTG | 0.14 | Neilson5 | |
| Spontaneous vaginal delivery after CTG | 0.77 | Neilson5 | |
| RR caesarean section after ST analysis | 0.97 | Gamma (186.12, 0.01) | Neilson5 |
| RR instrumental delivery after ST analysis | 0.87 | Gamma (269.46, 0.003) | Neilson5 |
| Fetal blood sampling after CTG | 0.11 | Beta (490, 3911) | Neilson5 |
| RR fetal blood sampling after ST analysis | 0.76 | Gamma (141.02, 0.01) | Neilson5 |
| Base deficit of >16 mmol/l in the metabolic acidosis group | 0.28 | Beta (24, 63) | Östergötland County Council19 |
| Base deficit of 8–12 mmol/l in the no metabolic acidosis group | 0.76 × 10−1 | Dirichlet (371, 1418, 3063) | Östergötland County Council19 |
| Base deficit of 4–8 mmol/l in the no metabolic acidosis group | 0.29 | Östergötland County Council19 | |
| Base deficit of <4 mmol/l in the no metabolic acidosis group | 0.63 | Östergötland County Council19 | |
| No encephalopathy when base deficit >16 mmol/l | 0.39 | Dirichlet (23, 12, 17, 7)* | Low et al.12 |
| Minor encephalopathy when base deficit >16 mmol/l | 0.20 | Low et al.12 | |
| Moderate encephalopathy when base deficit >16 mmol/l | 0.29 | Low et al.12 | |
| Severe encephalopathy when base deficit >16 mmol/l | 0.12 | Low et al.12 | |
| No encephalopathy when base deficit 12–16 mmol/l | 0.72 | Dirichlet (42, 11, 4, 1)* | Low et al.12 |
| Minor encephalopathy when base deficit 12–16 mmol/l | 0.19 | Low et al.12 | |
| Moderate encephalopathy when base deficit 12–16 mmol/l | 0.68 × 10−1 | Low et al.12 | |
| Severe encephalopathy when base deficit 12–6 mmol/l | 0.17 × 10−1 | Low et al.12 | |
| No encephalopathy when base deficit 8–12 mmol/l | 0.83 | Dirichlet (48, 10, 0, 0)* | Low et al.12 |
| Minor encephalopathy when base deficit 8–12 mmol/l | 0.17 | Low et al.12 | |
| Moderate encephalopathy when base deficit 8–12 mmol/l | 0.16 × 10−3 | Low et al.12 | |
| Severe encephalopathy when base deficit 8–12 mmol/l | 0.22 × 10−3 | Low et al.12 | |
| No encephalopathy when base deficit 4–8 mmol/l | 0.95 | Dirichlet (53, 1, 2, 0)* | Low et al.12 |
| Minor encephalopathy when base deficit 4–8 mmol/l | 0.18 × 10−1 | Low et al.12 | |
| Moderate encephalopathy when base deficit 4–8 mmol/l | 0.36 × 10−1 | Low et al.12 | |
| Severe encephalopathy when base deficit 4–8 mmol/l | 0.15 × 10−3 | Low et al.12 | |
| Cerebral palsy after moderate encephalopathy | 0.84 × 10−1 | Beta (15, 163) | Badawi et al.13 |
| Mortality the first 2 years after moderate encephalopathy | 0.62 × 10−1 | Beta (19, 287) | van de Riet et al.20 |
| Cerebral palsy after severe encephalopathy | 0.23 | Beta (17, 56) | Badawi et al.13 |
| Mortality the first 2 years after severe encephalopathy | 0.67 | Beta (124, 60) | van de Riet et al.20 |
| Proportion of severe cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with moderate or severe encephalopathy | 0.46 | Dirichlet (15, 6, 5, 6) | Badawi et al.13 |
| Proportion of moderate cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with moderate or severe encephalopathy | 0.19 | Badawi et al.13 | |
| Proportion of mild cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with moderate or severe encephalopathy | 0.16 | Badawi et al.13 | |
| Proportion of minimal cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with moderate or severe encephalopathy | 0.19 | Badawi et al.13 | |
| Cerebral palsy in children with no or mild encephalopathy | 0.12 × 10−2 | Beta (99, 82 620) | Badawi et al.13 |
| Proportion of severe cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with no or mild encephalopathy | 0.25 | Dirichlet (25, 30, 32, 12) | Badawi et al.13 |
| Proportion of moderate cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with no or mild encephalopathy | 0.30 | Badawi et al.13 | |
| Proportion of mild cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with no or mild encephalopathy | 0.32 | Badawi et al.13 | |
| Proportion of minimal cerebral palsy in children diagnosed with no or mild encephalopathy | 0.12 | Badawi et al.13 |
RR, relative risk.
*
To adjust for the zero counts in some of the events in these distributions a non-informative prior of 0.01 was used in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.