Figure 7.

BMI versus lifespan in western Europe, year 2000

Estimated effects of the BMI that would be reached by about 60 years of age on survival from age 35 years, identifying European Union (EU) mortality rates in 2000 with those for BMI 25–30 kg/m² and combining the disease-specific EU mortality rates with disease-specific relative risks (for details, see webappendix pp 18–20). The absolute differences in median survival (but probably not in survival to age 70 years) should be robust to changes in mortality rates, and therefore generalisable decades hence. (A) 3 main BMI categories. (B) 3 main and 2 higher BMI categories. (The 2 higher BMI categories account for just 2% of PSC participants, and so are indicated by dashed lines.)