Figure 2. Histograms of the release location (left column) and date (right column) estimates for the 40 simulated outbreaks with Reference scenario (Ref.) and scenarios A to E.

The release location is represented by the distance to the real source. For the date estimates, breaks were set at 9 AM and 7 PM and counts are represented by bar heights rather than bar surfaces. For two outbreaks of scenario D, the source location estimated with 5 observed cases was further than 12 kilometers (14.3 and 18.2 km). For scenario E, the source location estimated with 5 observed cases was further than 35 kilometers for two outbreaks (57 and 68 km), the source location estimated with 10 observed cases was further than 35 kilometers for one outbreak (57 km), the source location estimated with 15 observed cases was further than 35 kilometers for two outbreaks (45 km and 117 km).