Table 3. Performance of the Back-calculation Method to Fit the Expected Outbreak Size.

	Coverage* (%)			RMSE1 (%)			Error range**
# observed cases	5	10	15	5	10	15	5	10	15
Reference	95	95	95	71	45	32	0–215	1–137	3–83
A‡	80	95	95	103	50	33	2–237	0–143	2–102
B‡	95	95	95	71	45	32	0–212	1–141	2–83
C‡	90	97.5	100	89	32	22	4–478	1–82	1–72
D‡	80	87.5	85	141	72	54	2–427	1–232	3–201
E‡	87.5	90	90	90	52	35	2–412	1–189	1–119

RMSE1 = Relative root mean square error (see definition in Text S1).

*: The coverage is defined as the probability that the real value falls in the (2.5^th, 97.5^th) percentiles interval of the posterior distribution.

**: Range of the absolute relative error (%).

‡: See Table 2 and Methods for description of scenarios A to E.