Fig. 1.

π_k (0.8|Y) versus ${\tilde{P}}_k\left(0.8\right)$ for 1998. Optimal percentiles and posterior probabilities computed with the single year model (ϕ ≡ 0) and the AR(1) model (ϕ = 0.90) Two curves don't cross at γ = 0.8. The line for fully informative data, i.e., when there is no uncertainty associated with ranking results is given as reference