Table 3.

 Predictors of mid-term mortality

	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	P value
Multivariable frailty model*
Log EuroSCORE†	3.649 (3.447 to 3.863)	<0.001
CABG	1
CABG + other	0.944 (0.783 to 1.137)	0.540
CABG + valve(s)	1.243 (1.149 to 1.345)	<0.001
CABG + valve(s) + other	1.163 (0.842 to 1.605)	0.36
Other	0.979 (0.820 to 1.170)	0.82
Valve(s) only	0.902 (0.838 to 0.972)	<0.007
Valve(s) + other	0.903 (0.713 to 1.143)	0.39
Carstairs score‡	1.024 (1.015 to 1.033)	<0.001
Multivariable frailty model plus predictors of social deprivation*
Log EuroSCORE†	3.525 (3.327 to 3.736)	<0.001
Diabetes	1.305 (1.217 to 1.399)	<0.001
CABG	1
CABG + other	0.952 (0.790 to 1.147)	0.6
CABG + valve(s)	1.246 (1.150 to 1.350)	<0.001
CABG + valve(s) + other	1.228 (0.889 to 1.696)	0.21
Other	0.973 (0.807 to 1.174)	0.78
Valve(s) only	0.919 (0.851 to 0.993)	0.032
Valve(s) + other	0.930 (0.734 to 1.177)	0.540
Carstairs score‡	1.017 (1.007 to 1.026)	<0.001
Current smoker	1.294 (1.191 to 1.407)	<0.001
Ex-smoker	1.245 (1.165 to 1.330)	<0.001
BMI	0.941 (0.928 to 0.954)	<0.001
BMI 1§	1.000 (1.000 to 1.000)	0.56
BMI 2§	1.003 (1.001 to 1.004)	<0.001
BMI 3§	0.994 (0.991 to 0.998)	<0.001

CABG=coronary artery bypass grafting (reference procedure); BMI=body mass index.

*Includes consultant surgeon as frailty term (P<0.0001).

†Hazard ratio represents change in 1 natural log transformed EuroSCORE point.

‡Hazard ratio represents change in 1 untransformed Carstairs score point.

§Higher order terms from fitting restricted cubic spline with 5 knots to describe effects of BMI as non-linear function. Knots for restricted cubic spline for BMI were placed at 21.1, 24.9, 27.2, 29.8, and 35.38.