Table 1.

Data Required in the Analysis—Probabilities, Rates, Quality of Life

Parameter	Value	References
Gene frequency of CYP2C9*2 and/or CYP2C9*3	0.20	4,11,54–56
Relative hazard of major bleed in variants versus “wild-type” CYP2C9 variants
Initiation phase	3.94	11,15
Maintenance phase	2.39	11,15
Relative hazard of major bleed during initiation phase versus maintenance phase -
General population	1.9	26
CYP2C9 variants	4.7	Calculated
CYP2C9 “wild-type”	1.2	Calculated
Rate of thromboembolism - untreated (%/year)	0.045	35,57
Efficacy of treatment
With warfarin	0.68	35
With aspirin	0.22	23,57
Rate of thromboembolism - treated with warfarin (%/year)	0.014	Calculated
Rate of thromboembolism - treated with aspirin (%/year)	0.04	Calculated
Probable outcome from thromboembolic event
Death	0.27	35
Permanent sequelae	0.44	35,58
With severe disability	0.29	35,59,60
With mild disability	0.71	35,59,60
Good recovery	0.29	35,58
	Location of hemorrhage (value) (reference)
	Lobar ICH		Deep ICH		Extra-cranial		Subdural hematoma
Rate of bleeding —untreated (%/year)	0.00035	46	0.00035	46	0.006	22	0.00025	29,35
Probable outcome from bleeding event - without warfarin*
Death	0.190	41	0.207	41	0.13		0.20	61
Severe long-term disability — GOS=3†	0.428	41	0.436	41			0.07‡
Mild long-term disability — GOS=4†	0.196	41	0.187	41			0.40‡
Good recovery - GOS=5†	0.185	41	0.170	41			0.17‡
Relative hazard of bleeding on anticoagulants	5.7	62	5.7	62	2.4	63	4.0	29,32
Rate of bleeding on anticoagulants (%/year)	0.002	46	0.002	46	0.014		0.001	35
Probable outcome from bleeding event - on warfarin
Death	0.379		0.405		0.15	63	0.20	61
Severe long-term disability - GOS=3†	0.429		0.420				0.09	61
Mild long-term disability — GOS=4†	0.111		0.103				0.50	61
Good recovery - GOS=5†	0.080		0.073				0.20	61
Variable	Quality of life
	Value	Reference
Long-term morbidities
Well	1.0
Well while receiving anticoagulants	0.99	64
Severe long-term disability	0.11	64
Mild long-term disability	0.76	64
Dead	0.0
Short-term morbidities in patients with resolution
Extracranial bleeding event§	0.84
Intracerebral hemorrhage║	0.79
Thromboembolic event║	0.79

*Assume outcomes of bleeding events for aspirin-treated patients are the same as for untreated patients

^†GOS — Glascow Outcomes Score at 3 months

^‡ Assume same distribution of neurological outcomes in survivors as in anticoagulated patients with subdural hematoma

^§Assume Q = 0 for duration of hospitalization; length of stay (LOS) for gastrointestinal hemorrhage (DRG 174) =4.9 days

^‖LOS for specific cerebrovascular disorders except transient ischemic attack (DRG 14) =6.4 days