Table 2.

Beta-Coefficients, Bayes Information Criteria (BIC), Calibration and Discrimination for Hypertension Risk Prediction Models, Development Cohort (N= 9,427)

	Inclusive Model		Simplified Model With Lipids		Simplified Model		Blood Pressure Only Model
Predictors	Beta (95% CI)	P value	Beta (95% CI)	P value	Beta (95% CI)	P value	Beta (95% CI)	P value
Systolic Blood Pressure
<110 mm Hg	Reference	-	Reference	-	Reference	-	Reference	-
110 – 119 mm Hg	0.51 (0.33,0.7)	<0.001	0.5 (0.32,0.69)	<0.001	0.51 (0.32,0.69)	<0.001	0.58 (0.4,0.76)	<0.001
120 – 129 mm Hg	1.2 (1.01,1.4)	<0.001	1.19 (0.99,1.38)	<0.001	1.2 (1,1.39)	<0.001	1.35 (1.16,1.55)	<0.001
Diastolic Blood Pressure
<65 mm Hg	Reference	-	Reference	-	Reference	-	Reference	-
65–74 mm Hg	0.29 (0.07,0.52)	0.011	0.3 (0.08,0.53)	0.008	0.3 (0.08,0.53)	0.009	0.34 (0.12,0.57)	0.003
75–84 mm Hg	0.66 (0.42,0.9)	<0.001	0.67 (0.44,0.91)	<0.001	0.67 (0.44,0.91)	<0.001	0.76 (0.53,0.99)	<0.001
Race/Ethnicity
White/Asian/Other	Reference	-	Reference	-	Reference	-	Reference	-
Black or Hispanic	0.59 (0.26,0.92)	<0.001	0.58 (0.25,0.9)	<0.001	0.58 (0.25,0.9)	<0.001	-	-
Total/HDL Cholesterol	-	-	0.09 (0.05,0.13)	<0.001	-	-	-	-
ApoB (mg\dL)	0.005 (0.003,0.007)	<0.001	-	-	-	-	-	-
Natural logarithm of
Age (years)	0.92 (0.45,1.38)	0.002	1.22 (0.76,1.67)	<0.001	1.28 (0.83,1.73)	<0.001	-	-
BMI (kg/m²)	1.4 (1.03,1.77)	<0.001	1.67 (1.31,2.03)	<0.001	1.92 (1.59,2.26)	<0.001	-	-
hsCRP (mg\dL)	0.13 (0.07,0.18)	<0.001	-	-	-	-	-	-
Lp(a) (mg\dL)	−0.06 (−0.1,−0.02)	0.002	-	-	-	-	-	-
Total Grains (servings/day)	−0.17 (−0.27,−0.07)	<0.001	-	-	-	-	-	-
BIC	8788		8813		8820		8957
Harrell’s C-Index^* (SE)	0.714 (0.013)		0.708 (0.013)		0.707 (0.013)		0.682 (0.013)
Hosmer-Lemeshow χ²^† (p-value)	2.9 (0.94)		9.4 (0.31)		6.0 (0.64)		4.3 (0.83)

Harrell’s C-Index is analogous to the area under the ROC curve or AUC

^†

Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² measures the calibration of the model; significant p-values suggest lack of calibration.