Table 1.

Demographic, contact and epidemiological parameters for Serengeti lion prides. (For details about these parameters see Craft (2008).)

	estimated quantities	distributionsa	reference
demographic parameters
A: area of ecosystem	10 000 km2	n.a.	Packer (1990)
NP: no. of prides in ecosystem	180	NP˜U(150,200)*	Packer (1990)
XP: pride sizes (no. of females and cubs over three months old)	XP∼gamma(k,θ) with θ=4.707, k=2.226; mean pride size=10.48	$\begin{array}{c}\theta @\sim N(4.707,1.243)\\ k@\sim N(2.226,0.636)\end{array}$	SLP data 1991–1992
η: fraction of prides sharing males	0.882	η∼N(0.882,0.078)	SLP data 1992
ς: rate at which coalitions switch prides	0.25 switches/day	ς∼N(0.25,0.070)	B. Kissui (2003, unpubl. data)
Madj: territory adjacency model	$\text{ln}\left(\frac{p_{\text{adj}\left(AB\right)}}{1-p_{\text{adj}\left(AB\right)}}\right)=1.483-0.386·S_{AB}$b; mean number adjacent prides=7.36	$\begin{array}{c}\text{intercept}\sim N(1.483,0.225)\\ \text{slope}\sim N(-0.386,0.041)\end{array}$	SLP data 1991–1992
Ψ: proportion of adjacent prides recently split from a common pride	0.063	Ψ∼N(0.063,0.021)	SLP data 1985–1987
NN: no. of nomads	180	NN∼U(150–200)*	SLP data 1992
XN: nomad group sizes	XN∼log-N (μ,σ) with μ=0.292, σ=0.446; mean group size=1.51	$\begin{array}{c}\mu \sim N(0.292,0.065)\\ \sigma \sim N(0.446,0.046)\end{array}$	SLP data 1992
Mnomad: nomad migration model horizontal (x) and vertical (y) displacements in km per two weeks are given by gamma distributions	dispx: gammax(kx,θx) with kx=0.382, θx=2.85c dispy: gammay(ky,θy) with ky=0.714, θy=1.743d	$\begin{array}{c}{k}_x\sim N(0.382,0.029)\\ {\theta }_x\sim N(2.85,0.02)\\ k_y\sim N(0.714,0.029)\\ {\theta }_y\sim N(1.743,0.019)\end{array}$	M. E. Craft (2006, unpubl. data)
contact parameters
CP: rate of pride–pride contacts	4.55 contacts/two weeks	CP∼N(4.55,0.573)	SLP data 1985–1987
Mcontact: contact weighting model	$\text{ln}\left(\frac{w_{c(A,B)}}{1-w_{c(A,B)}}\right)=\alpha +{\beta }_{\text{d}}{d}_{\text{t}}(A,B)+\{\begin{array}{cc}-{\beta }_{\text{s}},& \text{if}\text{recently}\text{split,}\\ {\beta }_{\text{s}},& \text{otherwise,}\end{array}$ e		SLP data 1985–1987
α: Mcontact intercept	3.265	α∼N(3.265,0.371)	SLP data 1985–1987
βd: Mcontact network distance coefficient	1.698	βd∼N(1.698,0.264)	SLP data 1985–1987
βs: Mcontact recent split coefficients	0.696	βd∼N(0.696,0.220)	SLP data 1985–1987
CN: rate of pride–nomad group contacts	7.136 contacts/two weeks	CN∼N(7.136,1.018)	SLP data 1985–1987
G: pride group size during contact G′=log(G+1)	$G^{\prime }\sim N({\mu }_{G^{\prime }},{\sigma }_{G^{\prime }})$ with ${\mu }_{G^{\prime }}=0.447+0.014·X_{\mathrm{P}}$, ${\sigma }_{G^{\prime }}=0.232$; mean group size=3.65	${\mu }_{G^{\prime }}\text{intercept}\sim N(0.447,0.057){\mu }_{G^{\prime }}\text{slope}\sim N(0.014,0.004)\sigma \sim N(0.232,0.022)$	SLP data 1985–1987
epidemiological parameters
ϵ: incubation period (days)	ϵ∼Exp(λ) with λ=1/7	n.a.	Appel (1987)
ι: infectious period (days)	ι∼Exp(λ) with λ=1/14	n.a.	Greene & Appel (2006)
T: per contact transmission probability	free parameter	[0,0.3]

^aConfidence intervals marked with an asterisk (^*) are best guesses made by M.E.C. and C.P.

^bS_AB=the no. of prides located in the union of two regions: (1) the semicircle with straight-edge centered at A that runs through B, and (2) the semicircle with straight-edge centred at B that runs through A.

^cHorizontal displacement is the difference between randomly chosen right and left displacement, both distributed gamma_x(k_x, θ_x).

^dSimilarly, vertical displacement is the difference between randomly chosen variables, both distributed gamma_y(k_y, θ_y).

^ew_c(A,B) is the estimated probability that pride A will contact pride B per daylight hour of observation of A; d_t(A,B) is the territory distance between the prides.