Table 2.

Baseline variables and predictors of all-cause and CVD mortality, by length of followup^*

		HR (95%CI)
		5-year followup		10-year followup
Variable	Entire IP cohort (n=1.098)	All-cause mortality	CVD mortality	All-cause mortality	CVD mortality
Age at symptom onset (10-year intervals), median (IQR)	54 (41–67)	2.73 (2.26–3.28)	3.50 (2.64–4.64)	2.59 (2.29–2.95)	2.87 (2.39–3.45)
Male, no. (%)	383 (35)	2.81 (1.84–4.28)	2.30 (1.32–3.98)	2.16 (1.62–2.87)	2.25 (1.54–3.29)
Smoking status, no. (%)
Never smoked	353 (32)	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Ex-smokers who stopped ≥15 years prior to registration	209 (19.0)	2.06 (1.16–3.65)	2.40 (1.13–5.08)	1.40 (0.94–2.09)	1.62 (0.94–2.77)
Ex-smokers who stopped <15 years prior to registration	237 (21.6)	1.54 (0.85–2.79)	1.41 (0.62–3.19)	1.13 (0.76–1.70)	1.31 (0.76–2.26)
Current smokers	290 (26.4)	1.19 (0.65–2.16)	1.44 (0.52–3.97)	1.14 (0.77–1.51)	1.41 (0.76–2.62)
Delay to presentation in months (tertiles), no. (%)
Group 1 (0–2.9 months)	366 (33.3)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Group 2 (3.0–7.9 months)	368 (33.5)	0.50 (0.30–0.85)	0.33 (0.16–0.72)	0.87 (0.62–1.21)	0.73 (0.46–1.14)
Group 3 (8.0–54.0 months)	364 (33.1)	0.56 (0.34–0.93)	0.57 (0.30–1.07)	0.63 (0.44–0.92)	0.60 (0.37–0.97)
RF positive at baseline, no. (%)	267 (27.9)	2.09 (1.34–3.27)	2.41 (1.34–4.34)	1.85 (1.35–2.53)	2.43 (1.61–3.67)
Nodules present at baseline, no. (%)	73 (6.6)	2.70 (1.53–4.78)	2.16 (0.92–5.07)	2.19 (1.43–3.37)	1.95 (1.05–3.64)
Satisfied ACR criteria at baseline, no. (%)	499 (45)	1.00 (0.66–1.52)	0.68 (0.38–1.21)	1.36 (1.02–1.80)	1.30 (0.89–1.91)
HAQ score at baseline, no. (%)
<1.5	832 (76.6)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
≥1.5	254 (23.4)	1.80 (1.39–2.34)	1.94 (1.30–2.91)	1.80 (1.50–2.16)	1.70 (1.33–2.18)

^*IP = inflammatory polyarthritis; HR = hazard ratio; IQR = interquartile range; HAQ = Health Assessment Questionnaire (see Table 1 for other definitions).