Table 4.

Diagnostic accuracy of prognostic markers for progression to ESRD in different populations selected for screening^a

Prognostic Marker	Screening Strategies
	Diabetes/Hypertension		Diabetes/Hypertension/Age >55 yr		UK CKD Guidelinesb		Everybody
	TPR0.03	pAUC	TPR0.03	pAUC	TPR0.03	pAUC	TPR0.03	pAUC
Best clinical model	0.155	0.603	0.191	0.623	0.225	0.644	0.339	0.704
ACR	0.459	0.752	0.520	0.776	0.544	0.786	0.535	0.786
eGFR	0.453	0.754	0.464	0.757	0.526	0.787	0.605	0.821
eGFR + ACR	0.579	0.807	0.596	0.813	0.639	0.834	0.660	0.844
eGFR + ACR + best clinical model	0.612	0.820	0.616	0.822	0.660	0.842	0.692	0.858

^aTPR_0.03, true-positive rate (i.e., sensitivity) at a fixed false-positive rate (FPR) of 0.03; pAUC, partial area under the clinically relevant part of the ROC curve (FPR 0.00 to 0.10) transformed to values between 0.5 and 1.0.³⁵ Analogous to ordinary ROC analysis, a perfect test would have pAUC = 1.0, whereas a test with no ability to discriminate between those progressing to ESRD and those not progressing would have pAUC = 0.5. Best clinical model includes age, gender, physical activity, diabetes, systolic BP, antihypertensive treatment, and HDL cholesterol.

^bBritish CKD guidelines recommend screening of individuals with hypertension, diabetes, autoimmune diseases, CVD, or postrenal obstruction.⁴