Fig. 2.

Epidemic dynamics. (A) Epidemic trajectory. Results of 10,000 stochastic simulations displaying the cumulative nosocomial (red) and community-based (blue) XDR TB infection rates in a population of 100,000 served by a 60 bed TB hospital facility. Note epidemic die-out occurs in some simulations (bottom of error bars). (B) Queuing for care. Waiting times for therapy under the current system (blue), with rapid drug-susceptibility testing of 1 week turnaround (green), or with community-based XDR TB screening and therapy with capacity of 20 treatment slots at a time per 100,000 population (red; 20 slots per 100,000 have been provided in the Tugela Ferry pilot program). Cumulative XDR TB mortality among those patients waiting for therapy in each system (dashed lines) is also displayed. The y axis scale is both the waiting time to obtain therapy (in days) and deaths among those waiting (per 100,000 population).