Fig. 4.

Distributions of R and the probability of an XDR TB epidemic. Baseline, existing health system; default, reduce the rate of default from therapy to 5%; detection, increase case detection to 70%; DST loss, prevent loss to follow-up during the drug-susceptibility testing process and accelerate turnaround of results to 1 week; nosocomial, institute fully effective infection control program to avert nosocomial transmission; CBST, institute community-based outpatient DST screening and XDR therapy; combined, combine all of the preceding measures. (A) Box plots of R displaying 10,000 iterations of Latin Hypercube Sampling from the probability distributions of the input parameters. The horizontal mark is the median, the box designates the interquartile range, whiskers extend to 1.5 times the interquartile range, and outliers are plotted individually. (B) Probabilities of XDR TB epidemics under each of the simulated public health control measures. (C) Variation in the probability of XDR TB epidemics in communities with different adult HIV prevalences and congregate TB hospital ward occupancy (per 100,000 persons).