Table 2.
Impacts of climate change on the inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems.
| Contaminant source | Contaminant type | Effect of climate change on input | Other drivers | Effect on input | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plant protection products | Herbicides, insecticides, fungicides | Increased use due to increased abundance and activity of plant diseases | Move to organic farming will reduce inputs; move to biofuels will increase inputs | High | Bloomfield et al. 2006; Cannon 1998 |
| Fertilizers | NO3, PO4 | Intensification of cropping will increase use; decreases in soil organic carbon will increase use; increased leaching may increase use; more efficient plant uptake will reduce use | Increased manufacturing costs may reduce use | Medium | — |
| Sewage sludge | Heavy metals, pharmaceuticals, industrial contaminants, pathogens, nutrients | Intensification of cropping will increase use; decreases in soil organic carbon will increase the need for fertilizer use | Increased economic value of biosolids may lead to lower inputs | Medium | — |
| Veterinary medicines | Antibacterials, parasiticides | Intensification of livestock production will increase use; increase in disease pressures will increase use | Movement of farm animals may decrease | High | Gale et al. 2007 |
| Irrigation water | Pathogens, heavy metals, pesticides, other organic contaminants | Irrigation of crops likely to increase during dry periods | — | High | Rose et al. 2001 |
| Flooding | Heavy metals, dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls | Increased flooding may mobilize legacy contaminants and transport them onto agricultural land | — | Medium | Harmon and Wyatt 2008; Hilscherova et al. 2007 |
| Vectors | Bacteria, viruses | Ranges of selected vectors change; new diseases introduced to the UK | — | High | Gale et al. 2007 |
| Aerial deposition | Pesticides | Increased aerial transport of volatile pesticides between sites, increased soil blow | — | Medium | — |
| Changes in bioavailability | Dioxins, mercury, nutrients | — | — | High | Booth and Zeller 2005 |
| Compost | Heavy metals, dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls | — | Move to recycling increases inputs | High | Deportes et al. 1995 |
| Contaminants from plants and bacteria | Pollen, mycotoxins | Affects distribution, quantity, and quality of autollergens; increases production of mycotoxins | — | High | Beggs and Bambrick 2005; Shea et al. 2008 |
We developed the assessment of effects on input based on our current knowledge.