Table 2. Estimated effects of the date of confirmed infection on the markers of disease progression.

Statistical model (dependent variable)	Number of patients	Estimate (per year)	95% CI	p
Rate of CD4 decline (cells/µL/year)
Unadjusted effect of date	1423	−1.69	−2.29–−1.09	<0.001
General linear model	1279
Effect of date		−2.00	−2.69–−1.31	<0.001
Date×(HET or MSM)		0.89	−0.02–1.81	0.056
Mixed-effect model	1889
Effect of date		−1.86	−2.47–−1.25	<0.001
Date×MSM		1.10	−0.01–2.22	0.05
Viral setpoint (log10 RNA copies/mL)
Unadjusted effect of date	785	0.062	0.038–0.085	<0.001
General linear model	785
Effect of date		0.043	0.019–0.066	<0.001
Rate of CD4 decline in patients with setpoint data (cells/µL/year)
Unadjusted effect of date	484	−3.71	−5.52–−1.90	<0.001
General linear model	484
Effect of date (unadjusted for setpoint)		−4.42	−6.21–−2.63	<0.001
Effect of date (adjusted for setpoint)		−3.44	−5.19–−1.68	<0.001
Mixed-effect model	1120
Effect of date (unadjusted for setpoint)		−3.85	−4.33–−3.37	<0.001
Effect of date (adjusted for setpoint)		−3.35	−3.85–−2.85	<0.001

General linear models of the rate of CD4 decline were fitted to the estimated CD4 slopes per patient; mixed-effect models were fitted to the original CD4 count data. Date refers to the earliest date of confirmed infection in each patient. Further co-factors included gender, riskgroup, baseline CD4 count, age and interaction terms; stepwise elimination of non-significant factors was performed based on likelihood ratio tests. Effects not related to date are not shown.

CI, confidence interval; HET, heterosexual; MSM, men having sex with men.