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. 2009 May 26;3(5):e448. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000448

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Mondini et al.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.

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A) Bayesian skyline (BSL) plot of the virus genealogy-based estimate of the number of new infections (presented as Ne.g) indicated as the median for 82 DENV-3 isolates showing the increase from 180 to 120 days before the last sampling (from present day 0 or day of the last sample taken to the past), which matches with uncanny precision the rise in number of reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants from December of 2005. Apparent differences in overall population sizes are due to both the fact that the BSL shows accumulated number of new infections and to scaling problems or misreport. B) Number of Dengue reported cases in SJRP during the seasons of 2001–2002 (01_02), 2003 (02_03), 2004 (03_04), 2005 (04_05) and 2006 (05_06). It is noticeable that the maximum number of reported cases in 2006 happened in April, when the zenith of the epidemics, determined by the Bayesian skyline plot, was around February.