Table 2.
Comparison of detection power on ED and TH datasets, for varying outbreak sizes
| method | ED large | ED medium | ED small | TH large | TH medium | TH small |
| KULL MA | 6.05 (35.4%) | 3.11 (98.4%) | 3.67 (84.9%) | 6.58 (12.8%) | 4.36 (92.8%) | 4.06 (93.1%) |
| KULL MA-DOW | 5.74 (39.7%) | 3.04 (98.3%) | 3.60 (85.1%) | 6.54 (12.2%) | 4.36 (92.4%) | 4.06 (92.2%) |
| KULL MA-WK | 6.01 (37.0%) | 3.11 (98.5%) | 3.65 (85.0%) | 6.57 (13.1%) | 4.36 (92.8%) | 4.06 (93.1%) |
| KULL MA-WK-DOW | 5.74 (40.0%) | 3.04 (98.3%) | 3.61 (85.1%) | 6.54 (12.3%) | 4.36 (92.4%) | 4.06 (92.2%) |
| EBP MA | 2.46 (100%) | 2.45 (99.8%) | 3.19 (90.1%) | 3.31 (99.5%) | 3.35 (99.3%) | 3.60 (97.6%) |
| EBP MA-DOW | 2.46 (100%) | 2.44 (99.7%) | 3.28 (90.0%) | 3.27 (99.6%) | 3.46 (99.3%) | 3.79 (96.5%) |
| EBP MA-WK | 2.50 (100%) | 2.45 (99.7%) | 3.18 (89.0%) | 3.53 (96.3%) | 3.39 (99.0%) | 3.60 (96.3%) |
| EBP MA-WK-DOW | 2.55 (100%) | 2.51 (99.6%) | 3.32 (88.5%) | 3.64 (93.2%) | 3.56 (97.5%) | 3.81 (94.7%) |
| EBG MA | 2.98 (100%) | 2.77 (99.9%) | 3.37 (88.4%) | 4.46 (88.8%) | 4.34 (90.2%) | 4.27 (86.6%) |
| EBG MA-DOW | 3.04 (100%) | 2.90 (99.4%) | 3.41 (88.3%) | 5.00 (78.4%) | 4.94 (77.9%) | 4.76 (74.5%) |
| EBG MA-WK | 2.99 (99.9%) | 2.78 (99.8%) | 3.35 (88.8%) | 4.71 (79.8%) | 4.42 (88.2%) | 4.31 (85.1%) |
| EBG MA-WK-DOW | 3.15 (99.7%) | 2.97 (98.8%) | 3.40 (87.9%) | 5.24 (63.2%) | 5.02 (73.1%) | 4.76 (73.6%) |
Average days to detection, and percentage of outbreaks detected, at 1 false positive per month. Methods in bold are not significantly different (in terms of days to detect, at α = .05) from the best-performing method.