Table 3.
Comparison of detection power on CC and AF datasets, for varying outbreak sizes
| method | CC large | CC medium | CC small | AF large | AF medium | AF small |
| KULL MA | 6.43 (14.8%) | 2.53 (100%) | 2.33 (99.5%) | 6.64 (10.6%) | 3.20 (100%) | 3.00 (99.3%) |
| KULL MA-DOW | 5.69 (60.8%) | 2.25 (100%) | 2.06 (99.5%) | 6.44 (23.9%) | 2.80 (100%) | 2.61 (99.4%) |
| KULL MA-WK | 6.43 (14.8%) | 2.53 (100%) | 2.33 (99.5%) | 6.64 (10.6%) | 3.20 (100%) | 3.00 (99.3%) |
| KULL MA-WK-DOW | 5.69 (60.8%) | 2.25 (100%) | 2.06 (99.5%) | 6.44 (23.9%) | 2.80 (100%) | 2.61 (99.4%) |
| EBP MA | 4.61 (87.5%) | 4.07 (96.7%) | 4.13 (94.0%) | 4.22 (99.4%) | 3.95 (99.9%) | 3.87 (98.0%) |
| EBP MA-DOW | 4.59 (88.6%) | 4.06 (95.8%) | 4.10 (94.4%) | 4.70 (97.5%) | 4.37 (99.0%) | 4.32 (95.9%) |
| EBP MA-WK | 3.30 (98.2%) | 2.76 (100%) | 2.83 (99.2%) | 4.64 (82.5%) | 4.07 (98.2%) | 3.87 (96.7%) |
| EBP MA-WK-DOW | 3.07 (98.7%) | 2.58 (99.9%) | 2.57 (99.3%) | 4.65 (83.8%) | 4.01 (98.5%) | 3.89 (97.0%) |
| EBG MA | 4.73 (80.7%) | 4.30 (89.5%) | 4.43 (76.5%) | 4.80 (91.4%) | 4.56 (94.5%) | 4.47 (84.1%) |
| EBG MA-DOW | 4.81 (80.5%) | 4.36 (89.8%) | 4.54 (75.0%) | 4.96 (89.2%) | 4.68 (93.2%) | 4.70 (78.9%) |
| EBG MA-WK | 3.73 (91.5%) | 3.07 (99.4%) | 3.12 (95.4%) | 4.93 (75.7%) | 4.47 (93.3%) | 4.27 (85.9%) |
| EBG MA-WK-DOW | 3.68 (92.4%) | 3.03 (99.5%) | 3.06 (96.3%) | 5.04 (74.0%) | 4.54 (92.0%) | 4.36 (84.2%) |
Average days to detection, and percentage of outbreaks detected, at 1 false positive per month. Methods in bold are not significantly different (in terms of days to detect, at α = .05) from the best-performing method.