Table 2.

Data used to inform the decision model

Item	Input	Low	High	Reference
Cost of family history screen	1st/3rd of level III office visit, new patient ($40)	32	100	HCPC 99204 (36)
No. eligible screenees, U.S.	Adults age 40–44: 22,441,863	—	—	U.S. Census (37)
Proportion with positive FmHx	9%	8%	15%	PLCO trial (38)
Lead time for polyps	6.4 y	4 y	9 y	Moss et al. (39), Launoy et al. (40)
Proportion of polyps that do not progress	0.95	0.8	0.99	Shinya et al. (15), Rex et al. (16), Gschwantler et al. (17)
Risk of perforation, screening colonoscopy	1.96 per 1,000	0.5 per 1,000	2.5 per 1,000	Gatto et al. (41)
Screening colonoscopy cost	$723	$600	$1,500	HCPC G0105* (36, 42)
Proportion of positives receiving colonoscopy (adherence)	75%	50%	100%	Estimate
Relative risk of developing colorectal cancer in person With family history, age 40–50	2.25	1.8	2.7	Johns et al. (43)
Probability of developing colorectal cancer, age 40–50	0.185%	0.148%	0.222%	SEER STAT (44)
Life expectancy benefit for avoidance of colorectal cancer age 40–50	10.35	5	12	Calculated (see article), Sonnenberg et al. (45)
Cost of treating perforation	$15,684	$10,000	$20,000
Cost of polypectomy and pathologic evaluation	$1,036	$800	$1,500	HCPC 45385, 88305 † (36, 42)
Lifetime cost of treatment for colorectal cancer in age 40–50	$51,600	$40,000	$60,000	Brown et al. (46)
Efficacy of colonoscopy for removing precancerous polyps	100%			Estimate
Discount rate for future costs and life years	3% per annum			Gold et al. (47)

Abbreviations: HCPC, Healthcare Common Procedure Code; PLCO, prostate, lung, colon, and ovary.

^*HCPC G0105 screening colonoscopy, high-risk individual (physician fee, $390; facility fee, $333).

^†HCPC 45385 lesion removal colonoscopy (physician fee, $599; facility fee, $333); 88305 Tissue exam by pathologist ($104).