Table 2.
Base-Case Analysis
| Strategy | Cost | dQALYs | Cost-Effectiveness* | ICER | Cancers per 100 population | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HGD | No surveillance | $1,859 | 12.43 | $150 | 37.3 | |
| RFA with surveillance | $20,776 | 15.67 | $1,326 | $5,839 | 4.0 | |
| APC ablation with surveillance | $22,117 | 15.62 | $1,416 | (Dominated) | 4.1 | |
| PDT ablation with surveillance | $34,580 | 15.67 | $2,207 | $32,588,150 | 4.3 | |
| Surveillance | $48,354 | 14.82 | $3,263 | (Dominated) | 7.9 | |
| Esophagectomy | $58,973 | 15.02 | $3,926 | (Dominated) | 1.8 | |
| LGD | No surveillance | $687 | 14.71 | $47 | 14.7 | |
| Ablation without surveillance+ | $12,540 | 15.78 | $795 | $11,147 | 4.5 | |
| APC ablation with surveillance | $13,881 | 15.73 | $882 | (Dominated) | 4.8 | |
| RFA with surveillance | $14,409 | 15.78 | $913 | (Dominated) | 4.4 | |
| Surveillance | $16,210 | 15.38 | $1,054 | (Dominated) | 10.4 | |
| PDT ablation with surveillance | $28,017 | 15.75 | $1,779 | (Dominated) | 4.9 | |
| No Dysplasia | No surveillance | $471 | 15.19 | $31 | 11.0 | |
| Ablation without surveillance+ | $10,876 | 15.83 | $687 | $16,286 | 3.2 | |
| Surveillance with RFA for incident dysplasia | $10,933 | 15.67 | $698 | (Dominated) | 5.8 | |
| APC ablation with surveillance | $12,512 | 15.77 | $794 | (Dominated) | 4.3 | |
| MPEC ablation with surveillance | $12,691 | 15.81 | $803 | (Dominated) | 3.6 | |
| RFA with surveillance | $13,268 | 15.83 | $838 | (Dominated) | 3.1 |
dQALYs: discounted quality-adjusted life-years; ICER: incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; HGD: high-grade dysplasia; LGD: low-grade dysplasia; APC: argon plasma coagulation; RFA: radiofrequency ablation; PDT: photodynamic therapy; MPEC: multipolar electrocoagulation
Ablation without surveillance refers to a strategy in which surveillance is not performed for patients in whom complete ablation of metaplasia has been achieved.
*
Compared to a common baseline
+
Ablation modeled using RFA parameter estimates