Table 1.
Probabilities, hazard ratios, and utilities used in this study. Years refers to the years in which the probabilities apply. Tamoxifen hazard ratios are relative to no hormonal therapy. PBI hazard ratios for local recurrence (LR) and elsewhere failure (EF) are relative to WBRT. Costs are expressed in US2004$.
| Event | Years | Baseline Value | Range Studied | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| Probabilities | ||||
|
| ||||
| NED ⇒ IBTR | 0–5 | 6.7% (5-year) | 2%–20% | 9 |
| 6–10 | 3.3% (5-year) | 2–5% | ||
| 11–15 | 0 | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| IBTR ⇒ Metastasis | 0–15 | 20% (10-year) | 10–40% | 20 |
|
| ||||
| NED ⇒ Metastasis | 0–10 | 11% (10-year) | 5–20% | 21 |
| 11–15 | 6.7% (5-year) | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| Metastasis ⇒ Death | 0–15 | 32.8% (1-year) | -- | 22 |
|
| ||||
| % failures that are local | 0–5 | 93% | 50–93% | 16 |
| 6–10 | 62% | 50–75% | ||
| 11–15 | N/A | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| Hazard ratios | ||||
|
| ||||
| Tamoxifen Distant HR | 0–5 | 0.64 | -- | 9 |
| 6–10 | 0.69 | -- | ||
| 11–15 | 1 | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| Tamoxifen IBTR HR | 0–5 | 0.47 | -- | 9 |
| 6–10 | 0.69 | -- | ||
| 11–15 | 1 | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| PBI LR HR | 0–5 | 1 | 0.75–2.0 | -- |
| 6–10 | 1 | 0.75–2.0 | ||
| 11–15 | 1 | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| PBI EF HR | 0–5 | 3 | 2–4 | -- |
| 6–10 | 1 | 1–3 | ||
| 11–15 | 1 | -- | ||
|
| ||||
| Utilities | ||||
|
| ||||
| NED-WBRT | 0–15 | 0.92 | -- | 10 |
|
| ||||
| NED-PBI | 0–5 | 0.92 | 0.92–0.96 | -- |
| 6–15 | 0.92 | 0.88–0.96 | ||
|
| ||||
| Well after salvage mastectomy | 0–15 | 0.82 | -- | 10 |
|
| ||||
| Distant metastasis | 0–15 | 0.62 | -- | 5 |
|
| ||||
| Disutility of tamoxifen | 0–10 | 0.05 | 0–0.05 | 12 |
|
| ||||
| Costs | ||||
|
| ||||
| PBI-External Beam | 0 | $7,900 | -- | 2 |
|
| ||||
| PBI-MammoSite | 0 | $18,800 | -- | 2 |
|
| ||||
| WBRT | 0 | $11,190 | -- | 2 |
|
| ||||
| Treatment of local recurrence | Total | $20,879 | -- | 23 |
|
| ||||
| Treatment of metastases | Total | $13,627 | -- | 23 |