Table 2.
Lower‐level elasticity analysis: The proportional effect of model parameters on finite population growth (Λ) based on lower‐level elasticity analysis for the summer (Es, with reproduction) and winter (Ew, without reproduction) matrices for a non‐hunted white‐tailed deer population infected with CWD. Low transmission probability (π = 0·024) produces the current apparent prevalence and high transmission probability (π = 0·34) reduces the finite population growth rate to unity (Λ = 1). Demographic and epidemiologic parameter values are as shown in Supporting Information Appendix S1
| Symbol | Model parameter | Low π | High π | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Es | Ew | Es | Ew | ||
| Fy | Yearling fecundity | 0·032 | 0·000 | 0·055 | 0·000 |
| F2 | 2 year old fecundity | 0·045 | 0·000 | 0·072 | 0·000 |
| Fa | Adult fecundity | 0·066 | 0·000 | 0·051 | 0·000 |
| Sf1 | Fawn survival (0–6 months) | 0·143 | 0·000 | 0·177 | 0·000 |
| Sf2 | Fawn survival (6–12 months) | 0·143 | 0·000 | 0·177 | 0·000 |
| Sa | Adult survival | 0·572 | 1·000 | 0·469 | 1·000 |
| π | Transmission probability | –0·024 | –0·040 | 0·098 | –0·074 |
| γ | I‐to‐O transition probability | 0·004 | 0·002 | 0·028 | –0·033 |
| φ | O‐to‐C transition probability | 0·006 | 0·000 | 0·069 | –0·000 |
| α | Mortality probability for clinically affected deer (C) | 0·004 | 0·000 | 0·039 | –0·408 |