Table 4.
Predicted Probabilities of Health Outcome Changes Simulated between Age 65 and 73
| ΔU | ΔI | ΔU–ΔI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upost | Upre | Ipost | Ipre | [A]–[B] | [C]–[D] | [E]–[F] | |
| [A] | [B] | [C] | [D] | [E] | [F] | [G] | |
| N | 1,729 | 2,151 | 11,588 | 13,958 | |||
| Change of health status | |||||||
| Better | −3.9 | −4.0 | −3.4 | −3.1 | 0.1 | −0.3 | 0.4 |
| (−2.6, 1.2) | (−2.4, 0.5) | (−1.8, 1.8) | |||||
| Same | −19.2 | −18.0 | −14.7 | −13.9 | −1.2 | −0.8 | −0.4 |
| (−7.8, 4.8) | (−4.5, 1.9) | (−6.4, 5.5) | |||||
| Worse | −2.3 | −1.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | −1.0 | 0.9 | −1.9 |
| (−4.3, 4.6) | (−1.3, 4) | (−5.2, 2.9) | |||||
| Dead | 25.4 | 23.3 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 |
| (−5.4, 8.5) | (−2.9, 3.5) | (−6.1, 7.9) | |||||
| Mobility | |||||||
| No difficulties | −22.4 | −20.4 | −19.5 | −18.4 | −2.0 | −1.1 | −0.9 |
| (−8.7, 2.5) | (−4.7, 2.6) | (−7.6, 2.7) | |||||
| 1 difficulty | −0.9 | −2.9 | −0.9 | −0.8 | 2.0 | −0.1 | 2.1 |
| (−1.4, 5.7) | (−3.4, 2.1) | (−0.6, 5.9) | |||||
| >1 difficulty | 0.8 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 4.8 | −2.1 | 1.8 | −3.9 |
| (−5.7, 4.1) | (−1.5, 5.1) | (−7.2, 2) | |||||
| Dead | 22.4 | 20.4 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 2.1 | −0.6 | 2.7 |
| (−3.9, 9.3) | (−3.3, 2.8) | (−3.8, 9.3) | |||||
| Agility | |||||||
| No difficulties | −16.9 | −15.7 | −17.9 | −16.4 | −1.3 | −1.5 | 0.3 |
| (−6.1, 3) | (−5, 2.1) | (−4.4, 3.9) | |||||
| 1 difficulty | −2.1 | −2.2 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 0.1 | −0.1 | 0.1 |
| (−3.6, 3) | (−3.2, 1.5) | (−2.3, 3.6) | |||||
| >1 difficulty | −5.4 | −4.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | −0.8 | 1.9 | −2.7 |
| (−5.9, 5.4) | (−1.3, 5.4) | (−7.5, 2.9) | |||||
| Dead | 24.5 | 22.5 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 2.0 | −0.3 | 2.3 |
| (−5.1, 8.3) | (−3.3, 2.7) | (−4.4, 8.2) | |||||
| Pain | |||||||
| No troubles with pain | −18.4 | −17.4 | −16.2 | −13.5 | −1.0 | −2.7 | 1.7 |
| (−8.8, 5.9) | (−5.6, 1.7) | (−5, 7.2) | |||||
| Mild pain | −1.8 | −1.2 | 0.7 | −0.5 | −0.6 | 1.2 | −1.8 |
| (−2, 1.7) | (−0.5, 2.1) | (−2.8, 0.6) | |||||
| Moderate/severe pain | −2.3 | −2.4 | 1.6 | −0.3 | 0.1 | 1.9 | −1.9 |
| (−4.1, 4) | (−1.4, 4.4) | (−5, 2.5) | |||||
| Dead | 22.6 | 21.0 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 1.5 | −0.4 | 2.0 |
| (−5.8, 8.1) | (−3.4, 2.9) | (−4.3, 8.2) | |||||
| Depression | |||||||
| None | −4.3 | −11.4 | −6.0 | −11.6 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| (0.2, 10.3) | (1.7, 8.3) | (−4.3, 4.7) | |||||
| Subthreshold | −10.3 | −9.2 | −7.5 | −5.3 | −1.1 | −2.2 | 1.1 |
| (−3.8, 4.7) | (−4.6, 1) | (−1.2, 6.1) | |||||
| Active | −9.7 | −2.2 | −1.0 | 1.3 | −7.4 | −2.3 | −5.1 |
| (−12.1, −2.8) | (−4.8, 0.2) | (−9.3, −1.3) | |||||
| Dead | 24.2 | 22.8 | 14.5 | 15.6 | 1.4 | −1.1 | 2.5 |
| (−5.6, 8.2) | (−4.3, 2.5) | (−4.5, 9.2) | |||||
Notes: Adjusted for sex, age, education, ethnicity, race, and region.95% confidence intervals are in parentheses.