Table 1.

ARIMA regression of the imported malaria in the non-endemic provinces on the number of falciparum malaria in the endemic Yunnan and Hainan Provinces (1992–2005)

	Model I			Model II
		S.E.	p		S.E.	p
Moving average	0.864	0.054	<.0001	0.843	0.057	<.0001
Seasonal moving average	0.651	0.068	<.0001	0.682	0.064	<.0001
Auto-regression	0.273	0.102	0.008	0.207	0.103	0.046
Hainan (lag 0)	0.148	0.120	0.218
Yunnan (lag 0)				0.459	0.141	0.001
AIC		57.7			49.6