Table 3.

Asymptotic relative bias of parameter estimates for heterogeneous cohort, with different number of demented at baseline (base state: 1=Intact cognition)

		Averaged Baseline Dementia: 14%			Averaged Baseline Dementia: 27%
Risk Factors	State	True β	with baseline	without baseline	True β	with baseline	without baseline
Age	2	0.14	2.2%	−6.6%	0.14	−2.3%	−11.3%
	3	0.22	2.1%	−3.4%	0.22	−2.1%	−7.8%
	4	0.20	0.0%	−6.2%	0.20	−2.6%	−9.0%
	5	0.23	3.2%	−2.1%	0.23	1.4%	−4.0%
APOE4	2	1.59	2.6%	−4.3%	1.59	−4.7%	−16.0%
	3	1.98	0.5%	−5.0%	1.98	−5.1%	−14.2%
	4	2.06	1.5%	−3.8%	2.06	−1.7%	−10.3%
	5	1.75	−1.0%	−7.2%	1.75	−5.8%	−16.0%
Prior=Normal	2	−0.6	−21.5%	12.8%	−0.6	−5.1%	31.0%
	3	−3.0	−2.8%	4.0%	−3.0	2.5%	9.7%
	4	−4.5	13.4%	19.7%	−4.5	8.6%	13.7%
	5	−3.0	−2.4%	4.4%	−3.0	−4.2%	2.9%
Prior=MCI	2	0.30	20.1%	22.9%	0.30	−20.9%	−16.3%
	3	−2.7	−3.4%	−3.7%	−2.7	3.0%	2.5%
	4	−2.2	−7.5%	−7.9%	−2.2	1.8%	1.1%
	5	−2.5	−2.0%	−2.4%	−2.5	2.2%	1.7%
Age (Baseline)	2	0.21	−0.5%	-	0.21	7.5%	-
	3	0.28	1.3%	-	0.28	7.3%	-
	4	0.30	4.7%	-	0.30	4.7%	-
APOE4 (Baseline)	2	0.94	8.0%	-	0.94	−7.4%	-
	3	1.41	10.9%	-	1.41	−3.0%	-
	4	2.12	6.6%	-	4.12	−1.8%	-

States: 2=Mild cognitive impairment I, 3=Global impairment, 4=Dementia, 5=Death