. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2010 Jul 1.

Published in final edited form as: Comput Stat Data Anal. 2009 Jul 1;53(9):3334–3343. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2009.02.007

Table 5.

Parameter estimates for transitions probabilities in the Nun Study data (base state: 1=Intact Cognition)

Risk Factors	State	Naïve Model		Model without baseline		Model with baseline

		estimates	s.e	estimates	s.e	estimates	s.e
Age	2	0.052^*	0.0135	0.134^*	0.0226	0.160^*	0.0216
	3	0.129^*	0.0170	0.213^*	0.0248	0.240^*	0.0242
	4	0.120^*	0.0177	0.201^*	0.0275	0.229^*	0.0270
	5	0.140^*	0.0195	0.223^*	0.0266	0.250^*	0.0260
APOE-4	2	0.548^*	0.1785	1.145^*	0.3438	1.652^*	0.4006
	3	0.863^*	0.2160	1.522^*	0.3656	2.035^*	0.4197
	4	1.199^*	0.2206	1.645^*	0.3896	2.149^*	0.4411
	5	0.651^*	0.2561	1.310^*	0.3910	1.825^*	0.4420
Prior State:
Intact Cognition	2	−1.811^*	0.3208	−0.839^*	0.3741	−0.414	0.3660
	3	−4.358^*	0.3101	−3.350^*	0.3657	−2.934^*	0.3566
	4	−7.943^*	0.5212	−4.831^*	0.5696	−4.414^*	0.5637
	5	−4.054^*	0.3375	−3.044^*	0.3894	−2.630^*	0.3809
MCI	2	0.576	0.3210	0.397	0.3578	0.315	0.3632
	3	−2.458^*	0.2985	−2.643^*	0.3381	−2.728^*	0.3434
	4	−4.124^*	0.2977	−2.190^*	0.3570	−2.275^*	0.3622
	5	−2.228^*	0.3192	−2.465^*	0.3565	−2.548^*	0.3615
σ		NA	NA	1.638^*	0.2097	2.071^*	0.1973

significant at P < 0.05

States: 2=Mild cognitive impairment I, 3=Global impairment, 4=Dementia, 5=Death