Table 1.
Estimation of policy attributes and other characteristics and their marginal effects on the program re-enrollment
| Characteristics | Independent variables | Parameters | SE | Marginal effects |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social norms and conservation payment | Neighbors' behavior | −1.662* | 0.581 | −0.636* |
| Conservation payment (yuan) | 0.020* | 0.003 | 0.008* | |
| Program durations | 3-year duration (dummy, reference = 6 years) | −0.598† | 0.277 | −0.230† |
| 10-year duration (dummy, reference = 6 years) | −0.270 | 0.281 | −0.104 | |
| Household economic and demographic conditions | Farming income (1,000 yuan) | −0.075‡ | 0.042 | −0.029‡ |
| Off-farm income (1,000 yuan) | ||||
| Labor migration to outside of Wolong | 0.253† | 0.127 | 0.097† | |
| Tourism employment in Wolong | 0.046 | 0.071 | 0.018 | |
| Temporary employment in Wolong | 0.063 | 0.062 | 0.024 | |
| Permanent employment in Wolong | 0.054 | 0.047 | 0.021 | |
| Cropland after GTGP (mu) | 0.361* | 0.127 | 0.138* | |
| Livestock (dummy) | 0.406 | 0.520 | 0.157 | |
| Household size | −0.127 | 0.176 | −0.049 | |
| Total land enrolled in GTGP (mu) | 0.025 | 0.085 | 0.010 | |
| Land plot features | Area of land plot (mu) | −0.110 | 0.246 | −0.042 |
| Fuelwood production (kg) | 0.003‡ | 0.002 | 0.001‡ | |
| Average walking distance from each household to its land plots (minutes) | −0.038* | 0.012 | −0.015* | |
| Deviation of plot-household distance from the average distance (minutes) | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.006 | |
| Elevation (1,000 m ASL) | 0.050 | 2.099 | 0.019 | |
| Slope (degrees) | −0.038 | 0.024 | −0.015 | |
| Aspect (180 = north-facing; 0 = south-facing) | −0.007 | 0.006 | −0.003 | |
| Labor cost of reconversion (persons·days) | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.001 | |
| Geographic location (dummy) | 0.498 | 0.816 | 0.185 | |
| Respondents' characteristics | Age (years) | 0.077* | 0.023 | 0.030* |
| Gender (reference = female) | −0.841‡ | 0.474 | −0.300† | |
| Education (years) | −0.049 | 0.072 | −0.019 | |
| Constant | −3.812 | 4.902 |
Significant parameters for σμ = 1.836 (P < 0.01) and ρ = 0.771 (P < 0.01) suggest that the random-effects model is appropriate, and the test statistic χ2 = 80.59 (P < 0.01) indicates that the random-effects model is preferred to the model without random effects. The unit of measure for each parameter, SE, and marginal effects is given in parentheses next to the independent variable. Observations = 498; number of plots = 166; log likelihood = −219.209. SE, standard error; ASL, above sea level.
*P ≤ 0.01.
†P ≤ 0.05.
‡P ≤ 0.1.