Table 2. Key parameters in the epidemiological model.

Parameter	Estimate [Range in Sensitivity Analyses]
Duration of infectiousness [23]
Typical case	4 weeks
Mild case	3 weeks
Asymptomatic case	1 week
Vaccine efficacy [10], [26]
After the first dose	46.0% [0.0–88.2]
After the second dose	79.6% [24.6–94.5]
After the third dose	91.7% [74.5–97.3]
After the fourth dose	96.4% [86.4–99.0]
After booster dose	92.0% [32.0–99.0]
Vaccine coverage
Childhood	Between 80% & 96% depending on age
Adolescent	75%
Cocoon strategy	65% [35%–95%]
Routine adult vaccination	40% [20%–60%]
% of cases resulting from exposure to household contacts [27] , [28]
0–1 months	48.1% [38.0, 58.2]
2–3 months	48.1% [38.0, 58.2]
4–5 months	48.1% [38.0, 58.2]
6–12 months	33.6% [25.6–41.6]
13–18 months	39.2% [25.5, 52.9]
19–24 months	41.7% [25.0, 58.3]
2 years	38.2% [23.5, 55.9]
3 years	41.5% [26.8, 56.1]
4 years	40.5% [26.2, 54.8]
5 years	23.6% [12.7, 34.5]
Case fatality rates [29]
Typical cases
<1 year	0.69% [0.52–0.86]
1–9 years	0.05% [0.04–0.06]
10–17 years	0% [0–0]
18+ years	0.03% [0.02–0.04]
Mild cases
<1 year	0.0% [0–0]
1–9 years	0.0% [0–0]
10–17 years	0.0% [0–0]
18+ years	0.0% [0–0]
Rates of long term sequelae [29]
Typical cases
<1 year	0.06% [0.05–0.08]
1–9 years	0.02% [0.01–0.02]
10–17 years	0.02% [0.01–0.02]
18+ years	0.02% [0.01–0.02]
Mild cases
<1 year	0.0% [0–0]
1–9 years	0.0% [0–0]
10–17 years	0.0% [0–0]
18+ years	0.0% [0–0]